Investors' expectations that the stock market could surpass the short-term peak of 1,300 points turned to anxiety when the VN-Index suddenly turned around and broke the support level of 1,280 points with high liquidity.
The matched volume on HOSE yesterday (October 3) reached its highest level in the past 3 months, and closed near the session low, breaking the 1,280 point mark, plus high liquidity, showing huge selling pressure, which is likely to continue in the next session.
Most sectors were sold, especially the real estate sector. The weak banking sector "shouldered" the entire market. Short-term support is still the 1,270 point area, this support has not been lost, the uptrend is still preserved.
The 1,300-point mark of the VN-Index is becoming a difficult psychological threshold to overcome because the market does not have a new story enough to create a breakthrough.
Regarding this milestone, some experts say that investors should look at each capitalization group rather than the general market. Because these groups are increasing and decreasing alternately. When the large-cap group increases, the medium and small-cap groups will decrease and vice versa. This is also the reason why VN-Index has difficulty surpassing this threshold.
In addition, although the world context includes positive factors such as the Fed cutting interest rates and the Chinese stock market increasing, there are still risks such as armed conflicts in the Middle East showing signs of tension.
Dr. Nguyen Duy Phuong, Investment Director of DG Capital, expressed his opinion that the market is currently not attracting money despite the index pulling movements. Cash flow is showing certain concerns about domestic macro data to be announced at the end of the week as well as world political fluctuations. Therefore, the market is forecasted to have an adjustment and accumulation in early October before becoming more positive in the rest of the month with information about business results.
Commenting on foreign capital flows, Dr. Phuong said that foreign investors have gone through a period of capital withdrawal. In addition, the Fed has decided to lower interest rates, so foreign capital flows will more or less return to emerging markets. However, to trigger large capital flows, big stories such as upgrading or adding new quality products through encouraging large state-owned and private enterprises to IPO are needed.
Experts from Asean Securities Company commented that after unsuccessful efforts to surpass 1,300 points, the market has turned down (continuing sideways) and there is a risk of falling in the coming sessions. However, the downtrend is still not really clear, the selling side is still strong, making the buying side hesitate.
The 1,268 point mark will be a short-term support level to help the index regain balance.
Investors should maintain an average portfolio weight and wait for clearer signals from the general market, as all signs are showing a weakening trend.
In addition, it is necessary to monitor developments in world markets and the risks of decline in major economies to determine how long the current trend will continue.
“We maintain a positive assessment of the medium- and long-term market outlook. Therefore, investors should focus on stocks with good fundamentals and confirmed positive business results in the coming period, and be ready to disburse cash when these stocks reach attractive levels,” said experts from Asean Securities Company.
