Three scenarios for the Vietnamese aluminum and steel industry

Tuyết Lan (thực hiện) |

Lao Dong Newspaper had an interview with Mr. Nguyen Ngoc Quynh - Deputy General Director of the Vietnam Commodity Exchange (MXV) about the export scenario for Vietnamese steel and aluminum before the new US tax policy.

In your opinion, how will US President Donald Trump impose a 25% tax on all steel and aluminum imports into this country affect the export of steel and aluminum in Vietnam?

- The US is a large and important export market for Vietnamese steel enterprises. Therefore, Mr. Trump's imposition of a 25% tax on all steel and aluminum imports into the US will certainly affect Vietnam's steel exports in the coming time.

However, at present, this policy does not greatly affect Vietnam's steel and aluminum exports. Because from 2018 to now, Vietnamese steel has been subject to a duty rate of 25% and aluminum is also subject to a duty rate of 10% when imported to the US. Due to high taxes, although Vietnam is the 5th largest steel supplier to the US, it only accounts for a modest proportion of about 3-5% of the total import value of the country.

From a broader perspective, Vietnam's steel and aluminum exports will also be affected by the global chain effect. When countries are subject to high taxes, they will shift to other markets, including Vietnam. This causes fierce competition for domestic enterprises and many countries will introduce protection policies using trade or technical fences.

I think the immediate impact of this policy is on price movements in the world metal market.

Sir, what scenarios and solutions should Vietnam have to flexibly adapt to ensure steel and aluminum exports?

- There are always risks, if positive, this could be our opportunity. We predict that there may be 3 scenarios for the upcoming long term.

Optimal scenario: The US will consider some countries that will enjoy tax exemptions to ensure domestic steel supply as at the time of 2018, Vietnam was on this list. Vietnam is currently a comprehensive strategic partner of the US, so there is a basis for negotiating this condition. Australia has now negotiated and received Trump's promises of tax exemptions and reductions, although Trump has said he is "no exception". In this optimal scenario, Vietnamese steel will have the opportunity to increase export turnover to the US. However, I rate this scenario at 50/50.

Scenario 2: Vietnam is subject to taxes like other countries.

In fact, Vietnam is still subject to a 25% tax rate, so this scenario will not affect it too much.However, to prevent risks and adapt flexibly, Vietnamese steel exporting enterprises should proactively seek and expand markets to other regions such as the Middle East, Korea...
Worst scenario: Vietnamese steel must pay a 25% tax rate, undergo investigations of origin and undergo anti-dumping orders.Businesses should proactively prepare documents and procedures related to goods, to prevent the worst case scenario is the US investigating anti-dumping taxes.Coordinate with the Ministry of Industry and Trade to monitor commercial defense and business protection lawsuits in Vietnam.

What recommendations do you have for domestic steel and aluminum production and export enterprises?

- First, businesses must be proactive and coordinate with state management agencies, Vietnamese foreign affairs agencies, embassies, international organizations, and importers to grasp the situation and information and developments of the market.

Enterprises should increase internal strength by innovating production methods, processes... to produce high-end products, saving costs and increasing profit margins such as improving product quality by investing in environmentally friendly production technology and reducing emissions to meet the standards of developed markets. Update production lines, switch to high-quality aluminum steel product lines.

We can take advantage of the current time to accumulate input materials.

Thank you!

Tuyết Lan (thực hiện)
TIN LIÊN QUAN

Vietnam's steel and aluminum face challenges from US taxes

|

US President Donald Trump's 25% tax on all steel and aluminum imported into the US will have certain impacts on Vietnam's aluminum and steel industry.

Impact on Vietnam's steel and aluminum industry when the US imposes 25% tax

|

President Donald Trump has signed an executive order imposing a 25% tariff on all steel and aluminum imported into the US.

US tightens steel tax, may have little impact on Vietnam's steel industry

|

The US President has just signed proclamations to increase tariffs to a flat rate of 25% on steel and aluminum imports. At the same time, it will eliminate all exemptions for countries.

Dead pigs are dumped all over the road: Hanoi issues urgent directive letter after Lao Dong's reflection

|

The Hanoi Department of Agriculture and Environment has just issued an official dispatch on strengthening control and handling the dumping of dead pigs into the environment, after being reported by Lao Dong Newspaper.

The loophole in slaughter control makes pigs sick, showing signs of disease easily spreading to the market

|

Many loopholes in slaughter control lead to the situation of sick pigs, showing signs of disease, being sold by traders to slaughterhouses and then brazenly released to the market.

Phuong My Chi overwhelmingly defeated her Chinese opponent, entering the Sing! final! Asia

|

Semi-final 2 Sing! Asia was dramatic. Phuong My Chi became one of 4 singers to continue to the final.

US general threatens to attack Kaliningrad, Russia responds with shocking warning

|

Russia said that an attack on Kaliningrad means an attack on Russia, which could trigger nuclear action.

Top high schools in Hanoi lower 10th grade benchmark scores

|

Hanoi - 8 public high schools announced the lower admission scores for grade 10, including the top school, Yen Hoa.

Vietnam's steel and aluminum face challenges from US taxes

Tuyết Lan |

US President Donald Trump's 25% tax on all steel and aluminum imported into the US will have certain impacts on Vietnam's aluminum and steel industry.

Impact on Vietnam's steel and aluminum industry when the US imposes 25% tax

Tuyết Lan thực hiện |

President Donald Trump has signed an executive order imposing a 25% tariff on all steel and aluminum imported into the US.

US tightens steel tax, may have little impact on Vietnam's steel industry

Thạch Lam |

The US President has just signed proclamations to increase tariffs to a flat rate of 25% on steel and aluminum imports. At the same time, it will eliminate all exemptions for countries.