In today's trading session (September 9), VN-Index recovered slightly, closing at 1,637.32 points, up about +1.79 points (+0.79%) compared to the previous session. During the session, the index had a correction and recovery, reflecting the market sentiment that was gradually stabilizing compared to the sharp decline that occurred before.
In the September strategy report, Mirae Asset Vietnam Securities Company stated that the VN-Index still has room to break out. According to the analysis team, if the increase is maintained and exchange rate pressure is still within the control threshold of the State Bank, the index can reach 1,800 points, even 2,000 points in the remaining months of the year.
The basic scenario that Mirae Asset has given is that VN-Index will establish a short-term support zone around 1,650 points, about 15 points lower than the reference level of the September 8 session, then continue to increase. In case of less optimism, the market may form a medium-term support zone at 1,550 points.
Compared to the forecast in mid-June, when this securities company only set a target of 1,400 points with the view of "losing interest in caution", the new assessment is considered a strong increase in expectations.
The above forecast was released before yesterday's sharp decline, when the VN-Index, after setting a record of 1,700 points, turned around and lost points for two consecutive sessions, down to 1,624 points. However, the market still showed positive signals: Liquidity skyrocketed and foreign investors returned to net buying after a long period of strong sales.
According to Mirae Asset, large-amplitude fluctuations have become a normal state since the second half of August and may last in September. Some sessions recorded range fluctuations up to 100 points, reflecting the strong circulation of cash flow between stock groups. Notably, the transaction ratio of institutional investors has increased from 6-10% in 2023-2024 to 40-50% in the past 4 months, showing the growing role of this group.
The analysis team also noted that two key supporting factors - the FTSE Russell upgrade review and the possibility of the Fed cutting interest rates in September - are no longer new information. Therefore, any news fluctuations can become an opportunity for investors to take profits to preserve accumulated results.
Along with Mirae Asset, a series of other securities companies also forecast positively. VNDirect expects VN-Index to increase to 1,850-1,900 points in the next 9-12 months, while An Binh Securities (ABS) has set a growth zone of 1,7921,864 points in the medium term.
The common point between analyzing organizations is that the main growth driver of the VN-Index still comes from the profit recovery of listed enterprises. Along with that, the possibility of upgrading the Vietnamese stock market and the prospect of the Fed loosening monetary policy continue to be considered a contributing factor to help the market set a new peak.
