The stock market has just experienced a memorable trading week when the VN-Index surpassed the 1,600-point mark for the first time in history. Despite many fluctuations, this index does not form a peak and adjustment model, but gradually establishes a solid psychological support threshold.
Regarding foreign investors, it is noteworthy that last week, foreign investors net sold a relatively large volume, with a total value of up to VND 8,200 billion, focusing on bluechips stocks such as FPT, HPG, SSI, MBB, VHM, MWG... Experts assessed that this is likely a P-Note cash flow with a "fast-in - out-of-the-box" nature, taking advantage of profit-taking as the VN-Index continuously increased sharply to seek new opportunities.
Positive information in the country is dominating with a series of reforms gradually coming into practice, spreading throughout key industries such as banking, real estate, and energy. However, with an increase of more than 30% since the beginning of the year, most investors have made a profit.
The cautious mentality of protecting results is dominant, especially among individual investors. This could increase volatility in the session as profit-taking strengthens.
If negative rumors appear regarding the FTSE upgrading process or the impact of the international market, the market may enter a technical adjustment period of about 10% - an unusual adjustment in Vietnam.
Market analyst of HSC Securities Company said that, compared to previous periods, when the market experienced unusual sell-off and decline sessions, the decrease usually ranged from 7 - 12%. However, with the current solid internal foundation, the possibility of adjusting deeper than 10% is relatively low.
The main driving force of the market in the current period, according to those experts, is the strong return of personal capital, while domestic organizations still maintain proactive transactions. Abundant liquidity and the excitement from domestic capital flows are becoming the key driving force to keep the growth pace. The market needs separate stories of stocks with good growth to keep cash flow in the market in the context of increasing profit-taking pressure.
Experts from HSC Securities Company commented that unlike 2021, the current increase is mainly based on the internal strength of the enterprise. The business results in the second quarter of 2025 are the best in the past 6 quarters, with the medium and small enterprises sector growing remarkably.
Consolidated profit on all three exchanges increased by nearly 30% compared to the same period last year, reflecting the strong recovery of the economy. With the GDP growth target of 8.2 - 8.5% and the possibility of the market being upgraded by FTSE, the VN-Index can exceed current forecasts.
If comparing the market capitalization with the 2025 profit plans of enterprises, the P/E coefficient of the VN-Index is currently around 14 times. This level is not cheap, but during the period of strong market growth, this number can often increase to 18 - 19 times.
"Therefore, after adjusting about 10% (or equivalent), we think the index still has room to continue to increase. History shows that in strong growth cycles, the market's projected P/E often reaches 18 - 20 times, depending on cheap cash flow," said HSC's expert.
From a cautious perspective, experts from DSC Securities Company believe that the market will start to face more difficulties, and there may even be strong fluctuations. After a long period of price increase, the VN-Index may need time to absorb a large supply and a week of adjustment, a "rest" will be a reasonable scenario. The support price range is expected to be in the range of 1,590 - 1,600 points.
Phu Hung Securities Company also commented that the index of the possibility of returning to the test was about "gap increasing" before, corresponding to the area around 1,610 - 1,620 points. If the market remains stable above the 1,620 point range, it can be expected to aim for the next target of 1,700 points.
