The stock market had a week of strong decline, partly due to increased psychological pressure when the 1,300 point threshold was not conquered, causing many investors to decide to sell in the last three sessions.
At the end of the trading week, the VN-Index decreased by 20.32 points (-1.57%), down to 1,270.6 points. The HNX-Index decreased by 3.04 points (-1.29%), down to 232.67 points.
Liquidity on both exchanges this week increased compared to the previous trading week when matched volume increased by nearly 12% on the HOSE exchange and increased by 21% on the HNX exchange.
Major industry groups all significantly narrowed their growth momentum, such as banking, steel, or even real estate and construction, which all decreased. However, in general, the most active industry group and helped the market not to fall further was banking, and in some sessions, it even motivated the VN-Index to challenge the 1,300-point threshold again.
According to the market strategy report of Vietcap Securities Company, investors will cautiously wait for important information in October. Vietcap expects the market sentiment in October to be quite cautious when the VN-Index is close to 1,300 points and investors are waiting for some important information, including: socio-economic results in the third quarter of 2024; business results in the third quarter of 2024 of enterprises and the 15th session of the National Assembly which will start from the end of October.
Although Typhoon Yagi had a strong impact on some provinces and cities in September, Vietcap believes that the socio-economic results in the third quarter of 2024 will be positive thanks to positive results in July and August. In addition, the latest economic stimulus package from China may have a positive impact on the Asian stock market.
Mr. Nguyen The Minh - Director of Research and Development of individual customer products at Yuanta Securities Company - commented that in October, the market still faced strong resistance at the 1,300 point threshold. The short-term status is sideways with alternating increases and decreases.
However, in the medium term, the market is still in an uptrend. Monetary easing policies will have an impact on the market in the short term, helping to stimulate investor excitement. Global monetary easing will help cool down the exchange rate factor. Accordingly, money will flow into emerging and frontier market groups.
However, Mr. Nguyen The Minh also said that in the long term, it is necessary to consider the impact of easing policies. If monetary easing is implemented but the economy does not recover, it will trigger a recession. The possibility of a recession is not expected but still latent.
Regarding investment strategies, Mr. Minh said that there are still opportunities, but investors are struggling with the short-term market fluctuations, leading to low investment efficiency. On the contrary, the VN-Index is still increasing in general, so funds that have bought and held since the beginning of the year are still performing well.
"Investors should not use margin at this stage. Investors with good capital should still hold on. Investors who bought at high prices can take advantage of the declines to average the price and reduce the average capital cost. Investors should not speculate at this time. When the VN-Index exceeds 1,300, investors can disburse or start using margin," Mr. Minh stated his opinion.
