The stock market had a rebound session on the first trading day of the new month. Green is mainly supported by large-cap stocks and is largely concentrated in the VN30 basket. Liquidity continues to be maintained at a high level.
It can be seen that the VN-Index has maintained a tight accumulation trend over the past 8 months, showing signs of gradually increasing with the model of the lower bottom being higher than the previous bottom, reflecting the preparation for a new increase after a period of stagnation.
This recovery is driven by expectations of domestic economic stimulus policies, a more stable world macro when the USD shows signs of cooling down, or US President Donald Trump's tariff policies are not really as harsh as the market warned.
The decline in exchange-traded assets such as Bitcoin and digital currencies is also a factor that helps the stock market receive more attention from domestic individual investors. Therefore, when the Government implements a series of measures to support the economy and businesses, the stock market has a more positive reaction.
The current negative point of the market is the strong net selling power of foreign investors. According to statistics, in just the first two months of 2025, the net selling value of foreign investors (foreign investors) has exceeded VND 16,600 billion, equivalent to more than 630 million USD. The selling momentum of foreign investors is widespread, mainly focusing on the Bluechips group.
Although foreign investors have maintained a net selling trend since the beginning of 2025, this pressure is gradually decreasing compared to the peak period in 2024. Notably, foreign investors have returned to selectively buying some stocks such as MWG, TCB, VNM, VPB... showing a somewhat improved sentiment. Therefore, many experts expect that the selling pressure will not be as strong as before, helping the "net selling barrier" for the market to gradually ease.
More importantly, the main driving force of the market comes from domestic investors - accounting for more than 90% of liquidity. With Bitcoin and other currencies turning around, this speculative cash flow may take advantage of the opportunity to rotate through stocks, as the VN-Index has been accumulating sideways for 8 months.
In addition, the self-employed sector returned to net buying more than 201 billion VND after 4 consecutive net selling sessions, contributing to supporting the market's upward trend.
Mr. Nguyen Manh Dung, Senior Director of Strategic Research at HSC Securities Company, commented that from a technical perspective, the cash flow is returning stronger, focusing on the industry groups that lead investor psychology such as real estate, stocks, steel - sectors with stronger price fluctuations and are often noticed when the market enters an uptrend.
These areas are also benefiting from recent policy adjustments. Historical statistics support an optimistic scenario, when the VN-Index recorded the probability of increasing points in March in the past 8/10 years, strengthening positive expectations in the short term.
Mr. Nguyen Manh Dung said that the VN-Index last week formed a doji candle - a sign showing the balance between the buying and selling sides. Initial selling pressure has been absorbed, so the possibility of deep adjustment is low. With the current solid foundation, the general index is expected to continue towards the 1,310 - 1,315 point range. The corrections, if any, are only technical and create opportunities to accumulate stocks with good fundamentals.
"However, the 1,310 - 1,315 point range is a short-term resistance level, while short-term technical indicators show that the market is in a state of overbought. Therefore, fluctuations may appear, but it is also an opportunity for investors to slow down when they do not buy enough when the market is accumulating," Mr. Dung stated his opinion.
