Middle East tensions cause stock market to drop sharply
Only after more than 15 minutes of trading in the morning session of March 9, VN-Index has decreased by more than 100 points, retreating to the 1,660 point mark.
This is the strongest decrease in VN-Index history in absolute terms. All gains since the beginning of the year have been almost wiped out, bringing the market to the lowest level since mid-December 2025.
Market breadth leaned completely towards the selling side. On HoSE alone, there were 320 declining codes, of which 165 codes fell to the floor price. Large-cap groups also could not avoid selling pressure when almost the entire VN30 basket sank into red, with 20 stocks falling to the floor price. VN30-Index accordingly plunged more than 126 points, marking the strongest session decline ever, falling to 1,778 points.
According to the analysis of Mr. Dinh Minh Tri - Director of Personal Customer Analysis, Mirae Asset Securities Joint Stock Company (Vietnam), the main reason for the deep market decline is due to war tensions related to Iran. Brent oil prices in recent days have increased very strongly, at times exceeding 115 USD/barrel, even up to about 120 USD/barrel. In just a short time from the end of last week, oil prices have increased by about 30–40%.
The sharp increase in oil prices creates pressure on the whole world, not just Vietnam, dragging down many industry groups on the stock market to the floor in series. According to Mr. Tri, risks from the Middle East can now be considered the "black swan" of the market this year. If last year the market was affected by the customs story, this year the major variable comes from the conflict in Iran.
Mr. Tri believes that in the next few months, the world oil supply will almost certainly shrink and it is difficult to recover immediately.
Many industry groups are under cost pressure from oil prices
According to Mr. Tri, rising oil prices will create cost pressure on many industry groups related to energy, especially building materials, steel, cement or logistics.
These industries are heavily dependent on input costs from gasoline and oil, so they are strongly affected when energy prices increase. In fact, in today's trading session, stock groups such as steel, cement or building materials were all heavily sold at the floor price.
From a market perspective, Mr. Tri believes that Vietnamese stocks are likely to continue to fluctuate widely in the coming time. The developments of the domestic market are also significantly affected by fluctuations in international markets.
Recent sessions show that when the world market fluctuates strongly, for example, some markets such as Korea or Thailand have to temporarily suspend trading, the Vietnamese market is also affected.
According to Mr. Tri, in the current context, price levels have begun to show opportunities in some stocks that are less directly affected by oil prices, such as securities or banking groups. In this trading session, many codes in these groups also decreased sharply, even to the floor price.
However, if viewed from a long-term perspective, this may be an opportunity for investors to choose and build investment positions.
Conversely, industry groups directly related to gasoline and oil prices will still be major variables in the coming time. Many oil reserves in the Middle East are currently being attacked or blocked. If reserves run out and transportation routes are disrupted, factories may be forced to temporarily suspend production.
In that scenario, oil prices may continue to rise. In fact, many international organizations have also misjudged the rate of increase of oil prices in this period when they did not foresee the strong increase as it is now.
Investors should not bottom-fish yet
According to Mr. Tri, the possibility of oil prices continuing to increase in the near future is quite high and it is necessary to wait until at least the end of this month to be able to assess more clearly the developments of the energy market.
As oil prices continue to rise, stock groups affected by input energy costs will continue to be under pressure.
In addition, psychological factors also play an important role. If oil prices increase sharply, people may accumulate fuel or queue to buy gasoline. When supply is tightened, market sentiment may become more unstable and this also affects the psychology of investors.
According to Mr. Tri, opportunities in the market still exist, however, at the present time, investors should not rush to bottom-fish but should continue to observe more developments.
The market recovery scenario will depend heavily on whether the parties in the conflict can sit down for negotiations or not. If tensions persist, the impact will not only stop at oil prices but also spread to many global supply chains.
For example, rising oil prices can increase production costs in many sectors, including technology industries such as chip manufacturing in South Korea. When one link is affected, other industries will also be affected in a chain reaction.
Therefore, in the short term, Mr. Tri recommends that investors be cautious with the market. If oil prices continue to increase sharply, from about 115 USD/barrel currently to 150 USD/barrel, the stock market may continue to be under great pressure.
