Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East along with strong fluctuations in oil prices in the past week have created a fairly clear psychological shock for the market, especially in the context that VN-Index was previously moving in the high point zone. At the end of the week, VN-Index decreased by a total of 112.49 points, equivalent to nearly 6%, to 1,767.84 points.
In the short term, experts assess that market developments are likely to still depend heavily on the cooling rate of geopolitical tensions as well as energy price fluctuations.
If international information stabilizes again, the market may see a technical recovery when many stocks have adjusted to important support zones. Conversely, if risks continue to escalate, cautious sentiment may still prevail and the index will need more time to retest support zones before forming a new balanced state.
In the coming week, the market is likely to continue to fluctuate with a relatively large amplitude, reflecting the process of testing supply and demand after the recent sharp decline, instead of quickly forming a new upward trend immediately.
Kafi Securities Company offers some basis to expect the market to gradually regain stability. Firstly, the Vietnamese stock market is essentially led mainly by internal stories - from business results, domestic credit flows to government growth support policies. External geopolitical shocks often create short-term psychological correction waves rather than changing the fundamental trend of the market.
Second, from a technical perspective, selling pressure is showing signs of weakening as bottom-fishing demand appears in some large-cap stock groups. This is a signal that smart money is gradually returning, and the market is in the process of absorbing negative information.
Third, with the assumption that there is no further sudden escalation in geopolitical tensions or new shocks from oil prices, the market is highly likely to regain balance next week, with a gradually narrowing fluctuation range and more stable liquidity.
Commenting on stock groups that may benefit in the current context, Dr. Nguyen Duy Phuong, Investment Director of DG Capital, said that in the context of strong market fluctuations due to external factors, short-term cash flow tends to turn to industry groups associated with stories or highly sensitive to geopolitical developments. In addition to Oil and Gas, some groups such as Fertilizers, Chemicals or Transportation may continue to attract the attention of cash flow if commodity prices remain at a high level.
However, it is necessary to pay attention to the trend of easily reversing quickly if the general situation changes. Besides, the Securities group is also a bright spot to pay attention to, when market sentiment returns to stability and the March upgrade review period is approaching," Dr. Phuong assessed.
With the market context decreasing sharply, the psychology of investors wanting to bottom-fish is completely natural, but it is also the most common trap that individual investors are likely to fall into. Experts recommend that, in fact, "cheap price" does not mean "bottom-fishing" - the market can completely continue to adjust when macroeconomic pressure has not been resolved.
Therefore, investors are recommended to still prioritize defensive strategies and narrow their portfolios to 30-40% of the portfolio, especially investors with a high margin ratio should bring the ratio to a safe level. At the same time, if investors have a safe position, it is not necessary to sell out the portfolio.
