International conflict fluctuations are one of the main reasons affecting the psychology of the stock market last week. VN-Index recorded strong selling pressure with a sharp decrease of more than 110 points to 1,767.84 points, almost erasing the achievements of the previous two weeks of increase. Along with that, liquidity increased sharply compared to the previous week, showing that selling pressure has somewhat increased by investors.
Most experts are cautious in the current context that it is difficult to confirm whether the market has bottomed out or not. The biggest influencing factor currently does not come from the internal Vietnamese economy, but from the escalating conflict in the Middle East.
In addition, domestic interest rates have tended to increase slightly in recent times. At the same time, the defensive mentality, avoiding risks globally, makes foreign capital tend to withdraw to larger, more stable markets, creating more selling pressure in frontier and emerging markets such as Vietnam.
Technically, experts believe that VN-Index may continue to adjust to the 1,600 - 1,630 point zone, where the MA200 line plays an important long-term support role. That is a negative scenario to monitor. In uncertain conditions, all scenarios can occur. The most important message at this time is to prioritize risk management, not use leverage and maintain long-term thinking.
Pinetree Securities Company believes that it is likely that the stock market will maintain a downward trend that will continue. Investors should take advantage of this technical recovery to proactively restructure their portfolios, limiting new purchases of high beta stock groups such as real estate and securities. Regarding oil and gas and chemical stock groups, investors should absolutely not rush to buy at high prices but should patiently wait for the correction because this group has reflected somewhat excessively on news and fluctuations in world oil prices.
Agreeing with this view, Viet Capital Securities Joint Stock Company (VCSC) also believes that with the current technical signals, VN-Index is likely to continue to decrease in the next few sessions and test the support zone around 1,750 points, corresponding to the 100-day moving average (MA100) area.
VCSC recommends that investors should not open new short-term positions and should only maintain the proportion of stocks at the exploration level until clearer low-price demand appears.
Commenting on stock groups, in a market where most stocks are cyclical, high beta, Dr. Nguyen Duy Phuong, Investment Director of DG Capital, assessed that the pressure in this period is very clear. Cash flow in the uncertain period often turns to defensive stocks, businesses with stable cash flow, less dependent on economic cycles such as electricity, water, and public utilities. This is the group that is prioritized in the portfolio when the market fluctuates strongly.
Regarding the oil and gas group, it is necessary to look at it more cautiously even though the story of benefiting from rising oil prices is real. This group has increased by more than 70% in the first two months of 2026, the valuation is no longer really cheap. In addition, it should be noted that oil price increases need a certain delay, usually from one to two quarters, before being fully reflected in business results.
The story of divestment at some state-owned enterprises in the industry cannot happen immediately as expected by the market. These are important notes to avoid chasing purchases at high prices.
