ENSO has a major impact on global atmospheric circulation, thereby affecting the weather around the world. ENSO has three main phases: El Nino (hot phase), La Nina phase and neutral phase - appearing in cycles of 2 to 7 years.
The ENSO forecast is an important tool to issue early warnings about the rainy and stormy season. The reporter had an interview with Dr. Hoang Phuc Lam - Deputy Director of the National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting - on this issue.
Sir, what is the forecast for the main ENSO phase in 2025?
- According to the forecast, ENSO is likely to maintain a neutral state in the remaining months of 2025. Thus, the weather and climate in 2025, especially natural disasters such as storms, heavy rains, heat waves, droughts, and saline intrusion, are also forecast to occur at an average level compared to many years.
So with the ENSO developments as you have just analyzed, how is the forecast for the 2025 storm season? Can you compare it to the 2024 storm season?
- The 2025 storm season in the East Sea is likely to appear similar to the average of many years, i.e. around June and ending around December.
The number of storms/tropical depressions in the East Sea and affecting the mainland is likely to be approximately the same as the average of many years. According to data, on average, there are about 11 - 13 storms/tropical depressions in the East Sea each year, affecting the mainland by about 5 - 6 storms.
The number of storms in 2024 is also approximately the same as the average of 10 storms and 1 tropical depression, but there have been very strong storms and super typhoons that have caused significant impacts.
Of which, Typhoon Yagi, the storm considered the strongest in 30 years in the East Sea, has seriously affected Quang Ninh and Hai Phong, causing strong winds of level 10 - 12, gusting to level 13 - 15, especially Bai Chay station, gusting to level 14.
The Northeastern provinces will have strong winds of level 8 - 10, gusting to level 12 - 14. Hanoi City has strong winds of level 6 - 7, gusting to level 9.
The Central and Northern regions of Vietnam were heavily affected by major floods, combined with the impact of the storm causing widespread flooding and causing great damage to infrastructure and property.
Along with the activities of the storm season, what is the forecast for the trend of this year's rainy season, sir?
- In 2025, the number of widespread heavy rains is forecast to occur nationwide and be approximately the same as the average of many years, about 20 rains. Widespread heavy rains are likely to start in June in the North, then gradually move south and end around December in the Central provinces.
Sincerely thank you!
