Stock market diễn biến has been more positive from early morning today's session on March 24, after US President Donald Trump's statements about temporarily postponing attacks targeting Iranian infrastructure, helping crude oil prices cool down.
VN-Index at one point rebounded strongly by more than 30 points with widespread green coverage, and many purple colors appeared on the electronic board. In today's session, except for VIC continuing to "hold back" the index, the remaining large codes, especially banks, are the "tracers" for VN Index. Specifically, the Top 6 codes that have the most positive impact on the index are all bank codes including: VPB, CTG, TCB, VCB, MBB, BID.
Thanks to the banking industry group with the largest capitalization in the market, VN Index closed the session on March 24 with a strong increase of 23.6 points, equivalent to 1.48%, to 1,614.7 points.
Although green color has returned to stocks, on the contrary, the minus point comes from the decline in liquidity. In today's session, only 766 million shares were transferred, equivalent to a trading value of 20,160 billion VND, the lowest since the beginning of 2026.
Another minus point is the net selling move of foreign investors. In today's session, this group of investors continued to net sell for the 9th session on the HoSE exchange with 582 billion VND.
Experts believe that this is a necessary recovery session to help technical indicators become less negative, however, low liquidity and still quite cautious cash flow will continue to be challenges for the market in the following sessions.
Experts emphasize that the most important variable at this time is still the developments of the Middle East conflict. Only when there are signs of cooling down or a clear end, the market outlook will truly become more positive. Conversely, if the situation lasts, risks will still be high and difficult to predict.
At the present time, inflationary pressure - a factor that once played the role of "igniting" - is assessed as not as worrying as in the previous period. Unlike 2022 when oil and gas prices both increased sharply, this time the increase mainly came from oil prices, while gas prices did not fluctuate correspondingly, thereby helping to reduce input cost pressure. On that basis, many opinions believe that the inflation risk will not be serious, and the market has not entered a "bear market" cycle after the recent correction.
In the underlying scenario, inflation may increase in the short term but it is difficult to repeat the peak as in 2022. However, the delay of this factor can still affect business results, especially in the second quarter of 2026, when consumers tend to tighten spending after a period of high prices.
However, when cost pressure cools down and macroeconomic factors stabilize again, the economy is expected to recover relatively quickly, in the context that the current oil price shock is short-term and may reverse when geopolitical tensions subside.
Experts note that risks may still exist in the event of escalating and prolonged conflict, when the impact may spread and deepen the global economy. However, in the current context, the economic foundation of many countries is not strong enough to absorb prolonged shocks, making the possibility of maintaining conflict for a long time assessed as not high. The main scenario is therefore still leaning towards short-term fluctuations, difficult to repeat the level of prolongation as in the previous period.
