The strong correction took place in the context of low liquidity, with the matched order value on HoSE only reaching 16,000 billion VND. This development shows that buyers are not really strong enough to absorb the increased supply.
Ending the trading week from August 10-14, the VN-Index decreased by 38.98 points, equivalent to -2.2% to 1,729.08 points, ending two consecutive weeks of recovery before that.
Besides the market turning to adjust, foreign investors also turned to net sell thousands of billions of VND in the past week, especially, bluechip codes VHM and TCB alone were net sold nearly 1,600 billion VND. The market capitalization also "evaporated" 324 trillion VND, remaining about 9.75 million billion VND.
The "family" stock group Vingroup is the main factor when VIC took away more than 23.3 points, VHM nearly 4.1 points and VPL more than 1.8 points. The banking stock group includes many names in the list of stocks that have the most negative impact on the index, typically the state-owned trio including VCB nearly 2.2 points, CTG nearly 1.8 points and BID nearly 1.3 points.
In a difficult week, the most positively impacting stocks also only brought a modest amount of points. TCB is the leading stock with nearly 3.7 points brought in. Notably, DMX in its second week on the exchange continued to have positive developments, thereby contributing more than 1.6 points to the VN-Index.
According to the assessment of securities analysts, besides technical factors and cash flow, interest rate pressure is still a barrier to expectations of a sustainable increase in the stock market. In particular, the recent recovery was mainly supported by some large-cap stocks, while market liquidity and breadth have not improved correspondingly. When VN-Index approached the 1,800 point zone, this state made investor sentiment more sensitive: as soon as the leading group weakened, selling pressure could easily spread when new cash flow was not strong enough to absorb profit-taking supply after a hundred-point increase.
In a recent report, SHS Securities Company (SHS) said that the market in the coming time will continue to differentiate strongly, as price movements are increasingly dependent on the business prospects of each business, especially in the context that the Q2 business results announcement season has passed and the market is entering a period of information gap.
SHS Securities Company assessed that VN-Index is still heavily influenced by the Vingroup and banking group. In which, the banking group currently has an average valuation of P/E 8.60 times and P/B 1.35 times, which is considered low, equivalent to times of crisis in history. Conversely, the Vingroup group, after a period of strong price increase, is having a high valuation, while the short and medium-term price trend has shifted to an accumulation phase.
In August, the market will continue to move in a mixture of supporting factors and risks. In a positive direction, the economy is expected to continue to grow well, with a GDP target of over 10% in 2026. Inflation is expected to cool down, while interest rate fluctuations for short terms have stabilized.
Notably, FTSE Russell will announce a portfolio of stocks that meet the criteria for FTSE GEIS. SHS Securities Company expects this development to help foreign investors cut off the continuous net selling streak. In addition, market capitalization is still considered relatively attractive compared to the scale of the economy and GDP growth rate.
On the risk side, geopolitical tensions in the world continue, while increasing tariff pressures may put pressure on trade flows in 2026. SHS also noted the simultaneous bubble formation on some types of assets such as cryptocurrencies, gold, silver and precious metals, along with the AI technology stock bubble, while real estate prices tend to decrease.
SHS Securities also noted that the high margin debt ratio is also a factor that needs to be monitored, which may increase volatility and the level of differentiation of the market. With VN-Index, SHS Securities expects the index to continue to recover to around 1,800 points, before it may be under pressure to adjust and accumulate.
