In the context of international stocks being significantly affected after the Fed's decision to raise interest rates, the Vietnamese stock market entered today's trading session (September 17) with green color spreading across industry groups, especially securities stocks, which helped VN-Index recover about 25 points and close the morning session recording an increase of more than 14 points.
The market maintained a fairly good upward momentum in the 1,820 point price range throughout the session. Entering the ATC session, the general index suddenly plummeted, selling pressure increased widely, causing VN-Index to turn around and "fall" more than 30 points and penetrate the 1,800 point price range.
The main pressure came from Vingroup's VIC stock when this code sometimes fell to the floor, followed by Vinhomes' VHM also falling in price. However, major fluctuations occurred in a fairly short time, in less than 10 minutes of trading, the VN-Index recovered and regained what it had just lost.
Closing the trading session on September 17, VN-Index increased by 12.66 points (+0.7%) to 1,822.77 points with 200 gainers and 114 losers. Notably, the market's upward momentum has not been accompanied by a significant improvement in liquidity. Total trading volume reached 720.9 million units, worth more than 17,974 billion VND, both increasing by more than 21% in volume and value compared to yesterday's session. In which, negotiated transactions contributed 119.5 million units, worth 2,778.3 billion VND. However, foreign investors returned to net selling of about 372 billion VND in today's session.
VN-Index is trending in the opposite direction to Wall Street. In the session of September 16 (local time), the Dow Jones decreased by 1.21%, the S&P 500 lost 0.45% and the Nasdaq almost went sideways after the US Federal Reserve (Fed)'s decision to raise interest rates. Today, Asian stocks also diễn biến phân hóa, with many major markets such as mainland China (including Hong Kong) and South Korea going down. Meanwhile, Japan, Taiwan (China) and some other markets still increased. Market reaction is not too negative when the interest rate increase scenario was predicted in advance.
Dr. Nguyen Duy Phuong, Senior Director of Financial Analysis Division of DG Capital, said that the market's increase even though the Fed increased interest rates may be due to this information being reflected early according to international forecast probabilities. This rate once maintained above 60% in June-July and increased above 80% from the beginning of September. Rising oil prices and geopolitical tensions make expectations tightened even more clearly. Therefore, most of the adverse impact has been reflected in prices before the announcement time. In addition, the market is being supported by expectations for the first FTSE GEIS restructuring, after Vietnam was upgraded.
Regarding market developments, cash flow is currently concentrated in large-cap stocks, especially banks and securities. For investors holding high proportions of stocks, Dr. Phuong believes that management needs to be based on each position, not making decisions just because VN-Index increases or decreases. When VIC and VHM may distort perceptions of the index, the main trend and cash flow quality of each stock more closely reflect the actual risk of the portfolio.
Stocks that still maintain the price base, maintain a bottom structure higher than the previous bottom, liquidity increases in the session upwards and shrinks when adjusting can continue to be held.Conversely, stocks that are distributed, broken support, recover with shallow liquidity or continuously weaker than the industry need to be weighed down.Speculative positions and positions using high margin should be handled first.
Dr. Phuong recommends that investors should not sell simultaneously in a low-liquidity session, but should also not use the stability of VN-Index to delay cutting down a stock that has broken the trend.New purchases are only suitable when stocks re-confirm the price base, cash flow actively returns and the industry group has better spillover effects.A session pulling the index with a few pillar codes is not a signal to raise portfolio risk.
