After a period of adjustment and accumulation, the stock market had a fairly impressive recovery with 7 consecutive increasing sessions of VN-Index in the end of August. Closing the trading week from August 24-28, VN-Index increased by 3.62%, to 1,832 points, marking the second consecutive week of increase and continuing to head towards the 1,850 point zone.
The VN30-Index also increased by 2.86%, to 1,982 points. On the monthly chart, VN-Index ended August with an increase of 5.55%, thereby ending the adjustment streak of the previous two months. However, monthly liquidity decreased again, showing that cash flow showed signs of being more cautious as the market entered the high price zone.
According to analysis by DNSE Securities Company, before entering the holidays, VN-Index moved positively after retesting bottom 2, the structure of an upward trend has been formed. However, the differentiation is still quite large when stocks in the same industry group do not increase together, on the same day in the session, there are groups that increase green but there are also groups that are still submerged in red. This is a signal that the market is improving but cash flow is not really abundant, so there is a large differentiation.
The Vietnamese stock market is closed from August 29 to September 2 and trading resumes on September 3, while many international markets are still operating in the first three days of the week. Therefore, fluctuations may accumulate and reflect simultaneously into the opening price of the September 3 session.
In addition, on September 4, the US will release the August jobs report. Although the data appeared after the Vietnamese market reopened, investors should not rush to buy in a chase session on September 3 if the market increases sharply from the beginning, because international sentiment may still change before this important jobs report.
DNSE experts recommend that on September 3rd, when the market reopens, it is advisable to observe the price gap, breadth and liquidity in the first 30 - 60 minutes. If the world fluctuates badly but VN-Index still maintains support with not large selling pressure, that is a positive signal. Conversely, if the index falls sharply, liquidity increases and the leading group simultaneously loses their price base, prioritize defense instead of bottom-fishing immediately.
Entering September, the biggest focus of the market is FTSE Russell officially upgrading Vietnamese stocks. According to the analysis group from MB Securities Company (MBS), September can be divided into two phases. In the first half of the month, upgrading expectations are likely to continue to support investor sentiment, helping liquidity improve and cash flow direct attention to stocks in the portfolio related to FTSE.
In particular, large-cap stocks and codes in the portfolio added to FTSE All-Cap may receive significant attention as funds prepare to restructure their portfolios.
In the opposite direction, after the upgrade of 21.9, the market may face adjustment pressure when part of the expectation has been reflected in the price. Investors may have the psychology of "buying according to news" before the event and taking profits after the official information takes place.
Dr. Nguyen Duy Phuong, Senior Director of Financial Analysis Division of DG Capital, believes that VN-Index may continue to increase for about 5-7 more sessions in the early days of September before fluctuations and adjustments appear. In the scenario where cash flow continues to maintain FOMO status and spreads to midcap groups as well as other stock groups, the index is fully capable of testing, even exceeding the 1,850 point zone.
However, VN-Index approaching or exceeding this threshold does not mean that investors should increase their proportion at all costs. Conversely, this is the time to limit new purchases, especially chasing up stocks that have increased sharply. Some codes may adjust 5-7% when encountering resistance, but this is mainly a fluctuation in the upward trend, not a signal confirming the market is creating a peak.
With the current developments, VN-Index is likely to continue to move towards 1,850 points in the first weeks of September. If it can overcome this zone with sufficient liquidity and cash flow, the index may expand its upward momentum towards 1,900 points. Conversely, if profit-taking pressure increases, the 1,800-1,820 point zone will play an important supporting role," Dr. Nguyen Duy Phuong stated his opinion.
