The trading week before the National Day holiday recorded positive developments in the market. After the first session of the week increased sharply and approached the 1,800-point threshold, VN-Index maintained its recovery inertia and officially surpassed this mark in the following sessions, reaching more than 1,832 points. Liquidity improved compared to the previous week, showing that cash flow returned more clearly, and the spread level was also expanded instead of only focusing on some large-cap stocks.
The upward momentum has the participation of many industry groups. Banking, securities and real estate continue to play a leading role, while cash flow also turns to some large-cap stocks belonging to technology, public investment, oil and gas and retail groups. This spread helps the market recovery momentum have a better foundation.
At the end of August, the VN-Index recorded an increase of more than 96 points, equivalent to an increase of 5.55%, liquidity improved with the total market trading value in many sessions exceeding the 20-session average. Notably, the positive change of foreign capital flows.
Foreign investors only net sold nearly 1,370 billion VND across the market in August, down nearly 90% compared to the net selling level of nearly 11,644 billion VND in July, which is also the lowest net selling month of the year.
The problem the market faces is that while the indices are increasing quite strongly, the average liquidity has not really exploded. Matched order liquidity is only around 16,000 billion VND, showing that cash flow is still somewhat cautious. This may be a common development before long holidays, but it may also be a consequence of high interest rates and capital scarcity that has not cooled down.
The long holiday is assessed to create a necessary break for the market to absorb profit-taking supply after a rapid increase. After returning to trading, the VN-Index trend is still positively assessed by investors if the index maintains above 1,800 points and cash flow continues to stay in the leading groups.
VN-Index may fluctuate in the range of 1,830-1,850 points. This is an area where there is a possibility of higher selling pressure, so the market may experience sideways sessions to absorb supply. Stable accumulation around 1,800-1,820 points will create a better foundation for the next uptrend, instead of a hot increase in a short time.
Besides technical factors, investor sentiment after the holidays is also a noteworthy variable. After a period of strong recovery, investors tend to be more cautious, prioritizing observing the ability to maintain cash flow and the strength of the price base. This may cause liquidity to stagnate and the market to move sideways in the first sessions after the holidays.
The 1,800-1,820 point zone currently plays an important supporting role for the short-term trend. If VN-Index maintains this area, the recovery trend has a basis to be maintained, opening up the possibility of heading towards higher point areas. Conversely, if losing 1,800 points, the index may retreat to test the 1,780-1,800 point zone before finding a balance point again.
In general, the fluctuations after the holidays, if they appear, are not necessarily negative signals. In the context of the general trend still being positive, adjustments and accumulations will help the market absorb selling pressure, consolidate the price level and create room for the next increase.
