The trading week before the National Day holiday recorded positive developments in the market. After the first session of the week increased sharply and approached the 1,800-point threshold, VN-Index maintained its recovery inertia and officially surpassed this mark in the following sessions, reaching more than 1,832 points. Liquidity improved compared to the previous week, showing that cash flow returned more clearly, and the spread level was also expanded instead of only focusing on some large-cap stocks.
The upward momentum has the participation of many industry groups. Banking, securities and real estate continue to play a leading role, while cash flow also turns to some large-cap stocks belonging to technology, public investment, oil and gas and retail groups. This spread helps the market recovery momentum have a better foundation.
However, when VN-Index entered the 1,830-1,840 point zone, profit-taking pressure increased, causing the index to fluctuate more strongly. However, the supply force has not created a significant reversal and mainly reflects profit-taking activity after a rapid increase. The 1,830-1,840 point zone is still an area that needs to be monitored in the short term.
In addition, foreign investors continued to net buy in the last week of August, with a total value of nearly 1,000 billion VND, ending the prolonged net selling streak. In general, in August, foreign investors still net sold about 1,350 billion VND, but the strong net selling momentum from the beginning of the year has stalled. In September, capital flow related to upgrades was expected to help foreign investors return to net buying after many consecutive months of net selling.
Commenting on the market trend after the long holiday, analysts from Saigon - Hanoi Securities Company (SHS) said that the short-term trend of VN-Index is still positive after the index surpassed the resistance zone around 1,800 points and the correction trend line formed from May.
SHS expects VN-Index to move towards the 1,850-1,900 point zone. However, as the index approaches this area, supply pressure may increase. VN-Index is also likely to have adjustment phases to retest the 1,800-1,820 point zone. Accordingly, the 1,850 point threshold is a near level to observe for VN-Index when the market returns to trading. If VN-Index crosses this zone with positive liquidity and improved market breadth, the possibility of expanding the upward phase will be strengthened. Conversely, if profit-taking pressure increases, the 1,800-1,820 point zone will be the area to monitor to assess the strength of the short-term trend.
OCBS Securities Company also gave an assessment that the National Day holiday will create a necessary break for the market to absorb profit-taking supply after a rapid increase. After returning to trading, the VN-Index trend is still positively assessed if the index maintains above 1,800 points and cash flow continues to stay in the leading groups.
In a positive scenario, VN-Index may fluctuate in the range of 1,830-1,850 points. This is an area where higher selling pressure is likely to appear, so the market may experience sideways sessions to absorb supply. Stable accumulation around 1,800,000-1,820 points will create a better foundation for the next uptrend, instead of a hot increase in a short time.
Besides technical factors, investor sentiment after the holiday is also a noteworthy variable. After a period of strong recovery, investors tend to be more cautious, prioritizing observing the ability to maintain cash flow and the strength of the price base. This may cause liquidity to stagnate and the market to move sideways in the first sessions after the long holiday.
Fluctuations, if they appear, are not necessarily negative signals.In the context that the general trend is still positive, adjustments and accumulations will help the market absorb selling pressure, consolidate the price level and create room for the next uptrend.
