On August 21, FTSE Russell announced the list of Vietnamese stocks participating in the FTSE Global Equity Index Series (FTSE GEIS). After the upgrade was confirmed, investors in the stock market switched to a more specific question: Which stock is really capable of welcoming foreign capital and being revalued?
Notably, capital flows related to upgrades will not pour into the market at the same time. The process of bringing Vietnamese stocks into FTSE GEIS is carried out in 4 phases, from September 2026 to September 2027. In the first phase in September 2026, new index funds allocated 10% of the expected proportion to Vietnamese stocks.
The research department of SSI Securities Company (SSI Research) has just released the latest report, building two scenarios on the scale of foreign capital flows that may flow into Vietnam along with the corresponding disbursement roadmap.
In the basic scenario, Vietnam's proportion is maintained at around 0.49%, equivalent to about 2.2 billion USD of passive capital accumulated in 4 implementation phases. This scenario assumes that the process of improving free-float, foreign investor access and investment capitalization scale is slowed down after the initial increase.
In a positive scenario, Vietnam's proportion continued to increase to about 0.95% in September 2027, equivalent to about 4.28 billion USD of passive capital accumulation.
SSI Research emphasized that this is not a forecast, but an illustrative scenario in the event that the increasing momentum observed between the review period in March and August 2026 continues to be maintained. The driving force of this scenario comes from the increase in the number of stocks that can be traded freely on the market, the emergence of larger capitalization enterprises that meet the index conditions, improved accessibility for foreign investors, and greater foreign ownership space.
According to experts from SSI Research, in essence, this is not a story about stock price fluctuations but a story about the ability to invest. For many years, Vietnam's presence in global index sets has been limited not only by market size, but also by the proportion of assets that are truly accessible to international investors. As more and more businesses and assets become investable, Vietnam's proportion in global index sets may continue to increase. The FTSE review in March 2027 will be an important test for this argument.
Dr. Nguyen Duy Phuong, Senior Director of DG Capital Fund Financial Investment Division, commented that the more noteworthy impact of the upgrade story lies in the medium term. Instead of chasing after all stocks predicted to be "in the basket", investors can focus on three factors: FTSE capital scale expected to be allocated compared to the liquidity of each stock, profit growth prospects and current valuation. After August 21, the race to welcome foreign capital may therefore enter a more substantial phase. When the portfolio is identified, expectations will gradually give way to specific figures on proportion and capital scale.
With the roadmap extended to September 2027, sustainable revalued stocks will not simply be codes in the "basket", but businesses capable of absorbing both passive and active capital flows in the post-upgrade cycle" - Dr. Phuong stated his opinion.
