After a sharp decline on June 9, entering this morning's trading session (June 10), the stock market suddenly had a decrease to close to the 1,300-point mark when opening.
But almost immediately it has sent a signal of recovery when purchasing power has increased widely on electronic boards, helping green dominate greatly. The VN-Index accordingly reversed the increase to nearly 1,320 points.
At the end of this morning's trading session, the VN-Index increased by 7.73 points to 1,318.30 points. Liquidity reached VND 9,305 billion. However, the recovery momentum still needs to be observed further, as it has not been accompanied by increased liquidity and cash flow is still relatively strongly differentiated, with buying orders mostly only stopping at the exploration level.
The selling pressure from the real estate group is gradually weakening, while many industry groups have made a positive breakthrough. The most active group this morning was the retail and electronics distribution group.
According to experts, the current time is very sensitive to the stock market when the final round of negotiations on tariff policies between the US and Vietnam is very close, investors need to consider many factors before making decisions.
Experts from SGI Capital believe that the impact of tariffs will no longer be too great on the financial market. However, a part of domestic and foreign investors are still waiting for the final results to have a clearer basis for determining opportunities and implementing disbursement.
In the country, the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) continues to proactively manage exchange rates, cautiously taking advantage of unfavorable tariff situations.
With the development of the USD Index, SGI Capital still maintains the view that the pressure on Vietnam's exchange rate will not be too great in the second half of the year, especially after finalizing the tariffs on the US.
Government bond interest rates increased slightly compared to the beginning of the year, largely affected by US government bonds and public investment disbursement demand. Meanwhile, the State Bank continues to pump liquidity and interbank interest rates are falling to the lowest level of the year, demonstrating the abundance of liquidity in the banking system, serving the credit growth and GDP goals this year.
In addition, after Resolution 68, the Government is still quickly introducing many policies and implementing many measures to create a favorable environment to promote the development of private enterprises.
According to SGI Capital, many listed companies are ready to seize the opportunity to rise up and enter a new era.
For the stock market, SGI Capital believes that the current valuation is still in the cheap zone and there is still much room for increase. With the profit growth momentum of 10-15%/year and P/E and P/B valuations continuing to be low as at present, the VN-Index can still completely re-enter the peak of 1,500 points in 2026.
If foreign investors return to net buying or Vietnam is upgraded, the valuation and scores of the entire market will be raised to new heights.
SGI Capital expects that finalizing a reasonable tariff rate (about 15-20%) will pave the way for foreign cash flow to return when exchange rate risks drop significantly. Caution will increase in June as the deadline for tariff negotiations approaches and the market has had a strong recovery. Therefore, in the short term, the market is likely to accumulate and differentiate according to each individual story of the enterprise.
