At the "Appeal of Asset Lxes" seminar organized by the Financial - Investment Newspaper on November 13, experts said that the US economic context is strongly affecting the global asset market, creating great pressure on the monetary policy of the US Federal Reserve (FED).
Analyzing the macro context, Dr. Nguyen Tri Hieu - Director of the Global Institute for Financial and Real Estate Market Research and Development - mentioned the US government's closure for more than a month (the longest in history due to policy disagreements), the labor market showed signs of weakening and inflation increased to 3%.
According to Dr. Hieu, since taking office, Mr. Trump's tariff policies have put other countries in crisis. From that crisis, the asset market fluctuated greatly, including the world gold price, which has increased to more than 4,000 USD/ounce and caused the domestic gold price to skyrocket to more than 150 million VND/tael.
Dr. Hieu predicts that gold prices in the coming time will still be likely to increase, and has not seen any signs of decreasing. The biggest of which is the issue of geopolitical instability heating up in many areas, the issue of tariffs...
However, Mr. Trinh Ha - a strategist at Exness Investment Bank - said that although gold prices may still increase in the coming time, investors should be cautious. Mr. Ha said: Looking at the long term in the next 5-10 years, the gold price will have a very low profit... if people rush to buy gold at this time, the risk of opportunities will increase.
For example, historically, the profit margin of gold price compared to S&P500 is at a very low level.
The risk and opportunity here is that investors may be "burned" in gold at the Supposedly high price range. This causes them to miss the ability to use that money to bottom out or invest in other asset channels.
Mr. Ha believes that other channels such as stocks or real estate in the long term have better profits than gold.
The market's focus is currently on the FED's move. According to Dr. Hieu, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell is "very hesitant" to cut interest rates because inflation is still high, worried about " spilling more oil on the fire". However, under Trump's political pressure, the Fed may have to cut interest rates by 0.25% next week. However, Mr. Hieu predicted: Most often, just once this year, the FED will decrease by 0.25%. In 2026, it is not possible to predict.
Adding a perspective, Mr. Trinh Ha said that the market is betting on about 60% of the possibility of the FED cutting interest rates in December. He also predicted that, with the expectation of a softening inflation, "the Fed is likely to cut interest rates 2-3 times, 0.25% at a time next year".
Dr. Nguyen Tri Hieu analyzed that this move is of great significance to Vietnam. If the Fed lowers interest rates, the USD depreciates, "the value of the VND against the USD increases, thereby reducing pressure on exchange rates".
Mr. Hieu said that this is very positive for the Vietnamese economy, which depends heavily on foreign trade. When exchange rate pressure decreases, the State Bank will have more room to lower interest rates, supporting businesses.
