The information that investors are particularly interested in is that in less than 48 hours, FTSE Russell will release the National Classification Report of FTSE Stock in September 2025. Notably, Vietnam is on the watch list and is highly appreciated by FTSE for its ability to be reclassified from the frontier market to the secondary emerging market.
The positive outlook was quickly realized as soon as it entered the trading session on the morning of the first day of the week on October 6. After a long period of stagnation, the group of stock stocks suddenly became the focus of the market when attracting strong money.
The massive cash flow has caused a series of large stocks such as CTS, SSI, VND to simultaneously increase the ceiling and be white on the selling side. Familiar names such as HCM, FTS, VIX also recorded impressive increases of 4-6%, while liquidity exploded with SSI, VND, VIX, SHS dominating the entire market rankings.
VN-Index rebounded strongly due to buying pressure, at times this index "standing still" more than 40 points. Despite the increase and decrease caused by foreign selling, the VN-Index still ended the morning session with more than 33 points of increase, equivalent to 2%, to nearly 1,680 points. Liquidity also improved sharply with more than 622.6 million shares matched in the morning session alone, equivalent to a trading value of VND18,239 billion.
For more than a month, the VN-Index has maintained a sideways situation in the accumulation zone. It is noteworthy that although foreign net selling is quite strong, demand from domestic investors - including individuals, organizations and self-employed - has absorbed this supply well, helping the index not fall into deep shocks. This is a manifestation of the increasingly strong and proactive domestic capital flows.
To better understand the net selling engine of foreign investors, it is necessary to place it in the context of upgrading. As Vietnam approaches emerging market position in the FTSE basket, capital flows will have a short-term shift: passive frontier funds will be forced to sell, while passive EM funds will buy to simulate new indicators.
Activity funds are more flexible and in fact, many funds have held Vietnamese stocks in advance. Therefore, the current selling pressure is likely to only "clear the way" for a larger cash flow in the near future.
According to HSBC's Global Investment Research Department, the net buying value of foreign investors after the Vietnamese market is upgraded can reach 3.4 billion USD (equivalent to 0.6% in EM) in the base scenario to 10.5 billion USD (equivalent to 1.5% equivalent to Indonesia) in the good scenario. ETFs can disburse cash flow almost immediately, while active funds will gradually allocate.
It is thanks to good absorption from domestic investors that the VN-Index maintains a state of accumulation instead of weakening. Once the upgrading process is realized and foreign capital flows return, the market can completely enter a new uptrend with a more sustainable foundation.
Large-cap stocks on HOSE are likely to be added to the index basket, as they have met FTSE EM's criteria, including: VIC, HPG, VCB, VHM, MSN, SSI, VIX, FPT, VJC, VNM, VRE, SHB, VND, STB, GEX, EIB. More importantly, the moves to reform market operation methods to attract foreign capital such as operating a Clearinghouse, trading on the day... will be a significant boost next year.
