After a session of liquidity recovery, the VN-Index continued to be firmly above the psychological zone of 1,800 points. However, the fact that bluechips were differentiated and little volatile, plus the market liquidity decreased sharply, made it impossible for the VN-Index to go further when closing.
Closing the trading session on June 16, VN-Index increased by 8.63 points (+0.48%), to 1,807.94 points. HOSE had 187 gainers and 113 losers. Total trading volume reached more than 672.8 million units, worth 16,650.8 billion VND. Block transactions contributed more than 99 million units, worth 2,327 billion VND.
The highlight of the market is that the securities stock group continued to have a positive trading session when some codes increased to the full range. Notably, CTS, BSI, FTS, APG, TCX codes all closed at the ceiling price or close to the ceiling price. Many other stock codes also had good increases such as AGR +3.8% to 14,950 VND, VPX +3.3% to 28,050 VND, VND +3.1% to 18,250 VND. Among them, VND and VIX are in the top of the highest liquidity on the exchange with 21.6 million and 42.8 million units matched orders respectively.
The VN30 bluechip group had a differentiated and gloomy session when both only slightly fluctuated in price. Among them, SSI stock increased best by only +2% to 27,600 VND and in the opposite direction were ACB and VJC when they decreased slightly by around 2%. However, SHB is still the focus of liquidity when matching orders highest in the market with more than 47.8 million units, stock price retreated to the reference price at 13,900 VND.
Assessing the market prospects for the second half of 2026 by the SSI Investment Analysis and Consulting Center (SSI Research), the upward trend is still supported by fundamental factors.
The market is likely to enter a accumulation phase in the coming months before improving more clearly at the end of the year. The possibility of the index heading towards higher score zones should be seen as a medium-term scenario extending to 2027, depending on the level of improvement of domestic monetary conditions and the sustainable recovery of foreign capital flows, especially capital flows associated with the market upgrade cycle.
The main supporting factors for the outlook for the last 6 months of 2026 include fiscal policy continuing to support economic growth; cooling oil prices contributing to reducing inflation concerns; and the stock channel still maintaining relative attractiveness even though deposit interest rates may increase slightly.
In addition, attractive valuation continues to open up investment opportunities. VN-Index is currently trading at a projected P/E ratio of about 13 times, relatively close to the 5-year average.
With the story of upgrades, the expected inclusion in FTSE Russell's emerging market index from September 2026 may create significant momentum for foreign capital flows and market liquidity.
Although the medium-term outlook is still positive, SSI Research believes that short-term risk factors are still present. Interest rates are likely to continue to be under increasing pressure due to the prolonged gap between credit growth and capital mobilization. Bad debts in the first quarter of 2026 are also increasing, partly due to seasonal factors.
The outstanding margin balance of the whole market reached approximately 42.4 trillion VND by the end of March 2026, an increase of 3% compared to the previous quarter and about 50% compared to the same period. Although the margin ratio on equity is still at a controllable level, about 102%, the margin ratio on free-float capitalization of HOSE has increased to 13.4% by the end of March 2026, from 12.2% in 2025 and 10.8% in 2024, reflecting a trend of increasing leverage use.
If foreign investors continue to net sell, market fluctuations may increase, especially when the margin level is high, making the psychology of enduring liquidity shocks more sensitive. In addition, the risk of index concentration is still present when the increase is strongly concentrated in a few large-cap stocks.
Experts believe that if the interest rate level remains at a high level and liquidity conditions tighten, it is likely that the market will continue to fluctuate in a narrow range in the short term before forming a more positive trajectory in the last months of the year.
