The stock market has just experienced 4 weeks of decline, especially liquidity decreased sharply to the lowest level since the beginning of the year, showing that investor sentiment is cautious and trading is more selective. However, cash flow is predicted not to withdraw from the market and investors have predicted that the stock market will bottom out at the threshold of 1,800 points and positive signals will return.
That assessment was recorded right in the first trading session of the week today (June 15). The Vietnamese stock market opened to recover in green after 2 adjustment sessions at the end of last week.
The VN-Index progressed and approached the 1,800 point mark with green color increasingly spreading on the electronic board. At the close of the trading session on June 15, the VN-Index increased by 7.6 points to the threshold of 1,799.31 points.
Liquidity reached nearly 25,400 billion VND, about 9,000 billion VND more than last weekend's session, and at the same time the highest level in the past month. Large-cap stocks accounted for a dominant proportion in the liquidity structure with nearly 70%, equivalent to 17,000 billion VND.
By industry group, the banking stock group had the most uniform green color in the first session of the week with an increase of 1-3% compared to the reference level. The securities stock group also recorded excitement.
Meanwhile, oil and gas stocks faced strong selling pressure after information that the US and Iran announced that they had agreed to end hostile actions and world oil prices plummeted. For example, BSR shares fell 5.7%, while leading capitalization codes such as PLX and GAS fell more than 3%.
The VN30 group actively supported the market when closing up more than 18 points with 20 gainers and only 8 losers. In which, the VHM-VIC pair closed down 1.5-2%, taking away nearly 7 points of the general index, this is also one of the main factors causing VN-Index to "miss the appointment" with the 1,800 point mark in today's session.
In today's trading session, the positive point is that liquidity has improved significantly compared to previous sessions, showing that bottom-fishing cash flow is returning in some stock groups. However, the market is still in a correction phase and needs more time to confirm whether new demand is strong enough to create a foundation for a sustainable recovery or not.
Commenting on the current market liquidity developments, some experts believe that besides concerns about inflation and the possibility that the Fed will not continue to cut interest rates, or the story of differentiated cash flow, the market's illiquidity also comes from the story that the liquidity of the banking system has not improved significantly, causing the domestic interest rate level to remain at a high level.
According to experts, liquidity is usually low in June - July, so the current situation may continue for a while longer. However, from August onwards, liquidity may improve based on some factors.
First, August is the time when most businesses release Q2/2026 Financial Statements, helping the market assess the impact of inflation and interest rates. When the results are fully reflected in the price, market sentiment may be more positive.
The second factor is the expectation that interest rates cool down after June, stemming from banks completing the capital increase process, thereby supplementing liquidity and improving the capital buffer. Banks may also promote bond issuance to increase capital for the system. In addition, the fall in gold prices helps a portion of cash flow return to the savings system.
Experts also expect inflation to start cooling down from June and maintain a downward trend until the end of the year. This is the basis for the general level of interest rates to gradually decrease and support liquidity.
Forecasting the diễn biến of the index, VN-Index is currently in the process of testing the 1,800-1,830 point zone. If it surpasses the 1,840 point mark, the recovery prospect will be strengthened. Conversely, losing the 1,785 point zone may open up the possibility of falling deeper into the 1,750-1,760 point area.
