The trading week from June 8-12 closed with a rather dull state of the Vietnamese stock market. Starting the week with a sharp decrease of nearly 50 points, followed by sideways sessions with record low liquidity, averaging just over 13,000 billion VND/session.
According to the analysis of DSC Securities Company (CTCK), if looking back at the period of 2024 and early 2025, the market once appeared in a similar state. Continuously declining liquidity is usually the bottom of a sideway and then, the market has an upward momentum to the upper base. Investors lose patience because stocks have been sideways for too long. When people gradually accept the market "nothing left to play", large cash flow quietly accumulates.
Therefore, DSC Securities Company believes that if this scenario is repeated, the current low liquidity is not a negative signal, but a sign that low-price supply is gradually running out. As soon as a strong enough catalyst appears, the market may enter a recovery phase. The probability of this happening is 60%.
Another scenario that experts are also đưa ra is that if you don't look at the index, most stocks on the market are moving according to a downward wave structure. After enduring a period of deep decline, most investors believe that stocks in the low-valued areas have been bought with the expectation of recovery. However, the market did not increase as expected. Stocks only went sideways for a long time, causing investors to gradually become discouraged.
When there is no longer confidence and expectation, both buyers and sellers stop trading. That is the reason for liquidity depletion. If that scenario occurs, some opinions suggest that the VN-Index may have another wave of letting go of about 15-20% before forming a long-term bottom.
After a strong correction, the biggest question for investors at this time is not only whether VN-Index has bottomed out or not, but whether the decline of many stocks is attractive enough to look beyond short-term fluctuations.
Asean Securities Company believes that, with the downward trend prevailing, the less optimistic scenario shows that the index is likely to continue to test the support zone of 1,800-1,810 points in the coming sessions before shaping a clearer trend.
In this context, Asean Securities Company believes that the optimal strategy for short-term investors is to prioritize risk management, reduce the proportion in technical recovery and absolutely avoid using leverage, only consider disbursing when there is a bottom-fishing signal with improved liquidity, focusing on stock groups with their own story such as state capital divestment, market upgrades, economic development resolutions or offshore cycles.
Pinetree Securities Company also recommends that investors holding stocks should maintain an observant attitude, avoid panicked sell-offs in the support zone, and can take advantage of fluctuations to deploy exploratory funds with a small proportion on the existing portfolio of good fundamental stocks.
Conversely, investors who have not disbursed capital should continue to patiently stand aside, absolutely do not rush to bottom-fish when the market has not yet tested the 1,750 point zone, waiting for clear confirmation signals from the improvement of liquidity and the return of net buying by foreign investors.
Looking at the last 6 months of the year, the Vietnamese stock market still has many expected stories such as market upgrades, corporate profit growth, public investment, interest rate levels or domestic cash flow. However, the strong enough momentum for the market to regain its positive trend will not lie in a single story.
Instead, a more important factor is the ability of capital flows in the economy to be effectively deployed and transformed into substantive growth. The economy currently still needs more capital for both public and private investment.
If these two investment flows are effectively promoted, creating economic growth as expected, this will be a strong enough driving force to improve market sentiment and pull cash flow back.
