At the end of the trading session on September 25, KBC shares of Kinh Bac Urban Development Corporation - JSC (HOSE: KBC) slipped slightly to VND 28,050/share, down VND 150/share, equivalent to a decrease of 0.53% compared to the reference price.
However, in the past week or so, KBC shares have had many hot sessions, from the trading session on September 16th to now, KBC has increased by nearly 14%. Especially in the session on September 24th, KBC increased to the ceiling price of VND28,200/share with explosive liquidity, nearly 12 million shares were traded.
Previously, KBC shares continuously "fell downhill" when they decreased from the peak of over 36,000 VND/share in March to 24,000 VND/share.
Until recently, KBC stock has been performing positively with many hot increasing sessions.
As for Kinh Bac, the enterprise is known as one of the “giants” in industrial park real estate, with a land fund of up to 6,600 hectares, accounting for about 5.09% of the industrial park land fund nationwide. In addition, the enterprise also owns more than 1,400 hectares of urban land in major provinces and cities.
In a recent report by BSC Research, this unit assessed Kinh Bac's prospects from many projects that have been and are waiting to be implemented such as: Trang Due 3 is waiting for investment policy approval, about to be implemented; Hung Yen Industrial Cluster with a total area of 225 hectares, of which Dang Le Industrial Cluster (75 hectares) has been approved for 1/2000 Planning and is undergoing compensation, will be leased at the end of 2025; Loc Giang Project (466 hectares) has completed 1/2000 Planning, has paid the first compensation (100 hectares), and is waiting for payment of the second payment.
As of the last quarter of the second quarter of 2024, Kinh Bac has a total value of Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) but has not yet handed over an estimated 35 hectares, including 10 hectares of Quang Chau project, 15 hectares of Nam Son Hap Linh and 10 hectares of Tan Phu Trung. This is also the revenue driver in the second half of the year.
BSC Research expects the company to hand over the above area and earn VND500-600 billion. Net revenue for the whole year of 2024 is estimated at VND3,157 billion and after-tax profit at VND718 billion, down 44% and 65% respectively over the same period.
However, by 2025, Kinh Bac will have growth momentum from many large projects. Of which, Trang Cat and Loc Giang will be the "key" investment in KBC shares in the coming time.
BSC Research experts predict that by the end of 2025, Kinh Bac will depend on revenue from the Trang Cat project. The company has received VND5,650 billion in advance from Saigon - Ham Tan Tourism JSC under a deposit contract to distribute project products.
According to the project implementation status, BSC Research offers 2 scenarios for KBC stock valuation.
In the most conservative scenario, BSC completely eliminates the Trang Cat and Loc Giang projects due to unclear opening time, the fair value of KBC shares is estimated at VND22,700/share (down 19.5%). In the positive scenario, when the Trang Cat and Loc Giang projects are included, the fair value of KBC shares is estimated at VND44,400/share (up 57.4%).
