In an interview with Lao Dong Newspaper, Ms. Nguyen Thi Huong - Director of the Statistics Department (Ministry of Finance) analyzed the great pressures on macroeconomic management, and pointed out the drivers that are expected to help the economy achieve the 10% growth target.
In the first 6 months of the year, GDP increased by 8.18%. To achieve the target of 10% growth for the whole year, how has the Statistics Office updated the growth scenario for the last two quarters of the year, Madam?
- Based on the results of GDP growth in the second quarter and 6 months, the Department of Statistics updates the growth scenario according to Resolution 01/2026/NQ-CP as follows: Q1 increased by 7.94%; Q2 increased by 8.39% and 6 months increased by 8.18%; Q3 increased by 11.16%; 9 months increased by 9.19%, Q4 increased by 12.09%, the whole year increased by 10%.
To achieve the target of 10% growth for the whole year 2026, the last 6 months of the year need to reach 11.7%.
In order to realize the 10% growth target, what pressures will the economy face in the last 6 months of the year, Madam?
- Stepping into the last 6 months of 2026, the world economic context still contains many uncertain factors. In that context, weakening aggregate demand in key export markets reduces orders and foreign currency revenue, while the international interest rate level remains high and increasing logistics costs continue to put pressure on exchange rates, import inflation and the stability of the supply chain.
This means that the growth momentum from exports is likely to decline compared to the first half of the year. Notably, Vietnam's exports are still relatively largely dependent on some key markets and commodity groups, while the domestic added value rate of many products is still low.
Regarding public investment, although the last 6 months of the year are usually the period of accelerating disbursement, many projects still face difficulties such as slow site clearance, prolonged project adjustment procedures...
Besides the challenges, according to you, what will be the main growth drivers in the last 6 months of the year? Among traditional and new growth drivers, which factors are expected to play a leading role in achieving the growth target for the whole year?
- Besides the above pressures, the economy still has many favorable factors in both traditional growth drivers and new growth drivers.
On the side of traditional drivers, first of all, it is the driving force from production. The processing and manufacturing industry is still the foundation of economic growth if export orders continue to improve and the production activities of the foreign-invested enterprise sector are maintained stably. The service sector with the industries of trade, transportation, logistics, finance - banking, information technology, accommodation, food and tourism is expected to maintain positive growth rates thanks to increased domestic demand and the recovery of the international tourist market.
Besides the manufacturing sector, drivers from the demand side are also expected to continue to support growth. Public investment continues to be identified as an important driving force for economic growth in the last 6 months of the year. With a large scale of public investment capital and many key infrastructure projects being implemented (such as the Lao Cai - Hanoi - Hai Phong railway, inter-regional expressways and 5 strategic urban railway (metro) lines just started by Hanoi simultaneously), accelerating disbursement progress will create a strong spillover effect to other sectors, thereby stimulating the aggregate demand of the economy.
Growth in the coming time is also expected to be driven by new drivers. First of all, the shift in supply chains and international investment capital flows continues to open up opportunities for Vietnam to improve its manufacturing position globally. Along with that, science, technology, innovation, digital economy and digital transformation are gradually becoming new strategic growth drivers, contributing to improving the productivity, efficiency and competitiveness of the economy. Along with digital transformation, the development of a green economy and energy transition also open up many opportunities to attract investment and promote innovation in growth models.
To make growth drivers effective, institutional reform and improvement of the investment and business environment continue to play a fundamental role. Promoting decentralization, simplifying procedures, and removing bottlenecks in investment, land, construction and capital markets will help improve resource allocation, promote private investment and innovation, and create room for rapid and sustainable growth.
Thank you very much, Madam!
