In 2025, VN-Index achieved a performance of more than 40% and is considered a record high from 2017 to date. However, behind the impressive increase of the index, the market is clearly differentiated. Although the index increased by nearly 500 points, the main contribution came from certain stock groups, especially the Vingroup group. The "family" Vingroup stock group contributed more than 330 points to VN-Index, equivalent to about 67% of the increase points.
In fact, if you look at the breadth of the market, you can see the severity when more than 46% of stocks in the VN-Index basket recorded negative profits. This shows that, although the market increased, cash flow only focused on some large-cap stock groups. Pillar stocks such as VIC, VHM recorded a multiplier increase, fluctuating from 3-8 times. Meanwhile, only about 16% of stocks, equivalent to nearly 70 codes, had a similar increase to the VN-Index, around 40%.
Stepping into 2026, the general assessment is that smart money flow is trending clearly towards stock groups with strong fundamentals and valuations that are still at a reasonable level for risk management and sustainability.
The driving force for the market will return to the internal problems of the economy. Accordingly, the actual effectiveness of growth promotion measures will be measured and reflected more clearly by the market.
In addition, the story of macroeconomic management will also be a big unknown in 2026. The balance between credit growth, exchange rates and interest rates will be a challenge that the economy as well as the financial market must overcome in the coming time. Based on that picture, investors will also look for a "real" portfolio for 2026.
On the basis of high growth in 2025, it is forecast that net profit of listed companies on HOSE will continue to increase by about 18% compared to the same period in 2026. With that forecast, the valuation of the stock market is at an attractive level.
The projected P/E of VN-Index is estimated at about 12.2 times. This valuation level is considered by experts of VNDirect Securities Company to become even more attractive when compared to the deposit interest rate level.
Currently, the earnings-to-price ratio (E/P) of VN-Index is about 6.6%, while the interest rate on 12-month term deposits is only around 5%/year. This difference shows that the securities channel still maintains its attractiveness compared to the savings channel.
According to VNDirect, some industry groups are likely to be revalued by the market in 2026. In which, the construction and building materials industry is expected to benefit from improved operating prospects, thereby opening up room for revaluation. The retail industry is currently trading significantly lower than the 5-year average, in the context of stable recovery prospects, the valuation of this group is expected to be re-examined by the market in 2026.
In addition, the real estate and utility industries are also currently trading with discount rates compared to the 5-year average. With the prospect of real estate recovery, profit growth forecast at over 13% in 2026, along with stable business operations of the utility industry, VNDirect expects these two industry groups to enter a revaluation cycle in 2026.
The analysis team forecasts that in the base scenario, average matched order liquidity in 2026 will increase by about 25% compared to 2025, reaching 36.4 trillion VND per session, thanks to the momentum from the market upgrade story.
The reasonable P/E valuation of VN-Index is estimated at about 15.6 times, equivalent to the 10-year average. With a stable macroeconomic foundation and drivers from the upgrade process, the Vietnamese stock market is assessed to have room for revaluation at a higher level.
VNDirect believes that 2026 may become a pivotal year for the Vietnamese stock market. Along with solid domestic economic growth factors and positive business profit prospects, VN-Index is expected to maintain a stable growth momentum in 2026, with the index closing around the 2,099 point zone, corresponding to an increase of about 27.5% compared to the closing level on December 31, 2025.
