The average trading value on the Vietnamese stock market in the first 11 months of 2025 increased sharply, reaching about 1.5 billion USD, setting a new record high.
According to assessments from analysts of securities companies, this result comes from three main factors, including favorable macroeconomic context; a series of new legal reforms helping to strengthen market infrastructure and increase momentum for upgrade prospects. Along with that is the strong return of domestic investors, driven by positive expectations for the market and attractive margin lending interest rates.
However, market liquidity cooled down in the fourth quarter of 2025 when the market entered a correction phase after the strong increase phase of the third quarter of 2025. At the same time, investors tended to be more cautious, postponing large-scale transactions to wait for business results for the whole year as well as clearer orientations for 2026, thereby creating more pressure on liquidity in the fourth quarter compared to the third quarter.
The Vietnamese stock market is assessed by investors as still having a lot of room for growth in the medium and long term. Currently, the Vietnamese economy is still significantly dependent on bank credit to support production and business expansion.
However, in the context of medium and long-term growth prospects continuing to be maintained, the need to diversify capital mobilization channels is becoming increasingly urgent, thereby making the development of the stock and corporate bond market a key factor.
By the end of the third quarter of 2025, the capitalization of Vietnam's stock market is only equivalent to about 56% of GDP, significantly lower than markets in the region such as Thailand and Malaysia. This gap shows a large room for the domestic stock market to expand, along with the growth momentum of the economy. Previously, in the Capital Market Development Strategy issued in 2022, the Government set a target to bring the capitalization of the stock market to 120% of GDP by 2030.
In 2026, the analysis group of Vietcap Securities Company forecasts that the average trading value on the stock market will continue to increase by 18% compared to the previous year, reaching about 1.35 billion USD. The growth momentum comes from expectations that the new features of the KRX system, such as daily trading and shortening the payment cycle from T+2.5 to T+2, will promote trading activities.
Corporate profit growth is maintained at a high level in a favorable macroeconomic context with supportive monetary and fiscal policies. In addition, along with the expected increase in foreign capital flows, estimated at about 5–6 billion USD, after Vietnam is upgraded to a emerging market in 2026.
In 2026, investment cash flow is also forecast to continue the trend of clear differentiation, instead of spreading evenly throughout the market. Cash flow is likely to focus on industries and businesses with solid fundamentals, sustainable growth and directly benefiting from the development process of the economy.
Investors will pay more attention to businesses that have clear investment stories, associated with long-term strategies, competitive advantages and future expansion potential, instead of just relying on short-term speculative gains. In addition, the developments of interest rates, exchange rates, gold prices, and digital assets in the international market will also affect the trend of choosing investment channels.
In particular, foreign capital flows and the market upgrade process are expected to continue to be key factors, strongly impacting the selection of specific industry groups and stocks in the coming year.
