According to the latest report from the General Statistics Office, total retail sales of goods and consumer service revenue at current prices in July 2025 is estimated at VND 576.4 trillion, up 1.1% over the previous month and up 9.2% over the same period last year. In the first seven months of 2025, total retail sales of goods and consumer service revenue at current prices is estimated at VND 3,993.4 trillion, up 9.3% over the same period last year. In addition, the index of industrial production (IIP) increased by 8.6%; newly registered and additional FDI reached 24.09 billion USD, up 27.3%, while realized FDI reached 13.6 billion USD, up 8.4%. Tourism continues to recover strongly with more than 12.2 million international visitors, up 22.5% over the same period, leading to increased demand for consumption, accommodation and services.
However, the manufacturing PMI in July 2025 increased to 52.4 points from 48.9 points in June, marking the first time it has exceeded the 50 threshold after four months of narrowing. This is the most obvious improvement in nearly a year, reflecting the increase in new orders, especially from the domestic market. Although export orders are still affected by tariff factors, production output continues to increase for the third consecutive month, recording the strongest increase in 11 months.
In this favorable macro context, Masan Group ( stock code: MSN) with an integrated consumer - retail ecosystem is forecast to benefit directly from the recovery of domestic purchasing power and international investment capital. With its leading position in the industry, MSN has the potential to maintain profit growth in 2025, while becoming a destination for foreign capital when Vietnam sets a GDP growth target of 8% or more and GDP per capita exceeds 5,000 USD.
With support from the macroeconomic platform and investment capital shift, MSN shares are expected to both reflect positive business prospects and be an attractive choice in the group of consumer - retail stocks.
Promoting the modernization of the Vietnamese retail market
The newly released business results show that WinCommerce retail chain continues to make an important contribution to Masan's overall growth in the first half of 2025. The implementation of a new supermarket and store model, especially rapid expansion in rural areas, has helped WinCommerce (WCM) improve both revenue and profit. On average, there are about 2 new stores in operation every day, bringing the total selling point nationwide to over 4,000. Of which, nearly 3/4 of newly opened stores are concentrated in rural areas, which account for more than 60% of the country's population.
According to the report in July 2025, WCM achieved net revenue of VND 3,486 billion, up 23.0% over the same period in 2024, higher than the target of 812% annual growth. In the first 7 months, revenue reached VND 21,400 billion, up 14.8% over the same period. In July, WCM opened 36 new stores, bringing the total number of newly opened stores from the beginning of the year to 354, equivalent to more than 50% of the annual plan (400700 stores). About 75% of these are WinMart+ stores in rural areas. The Central region alone recorded 175 stores, accounting for nearly 50% of the total number of newly opened stores. WCM's long-term plan aims for each district/county to have a WinMart supermarket, each commune/ward to have a mini supermarket and each village and residential group to have a WiN+ sales point. However, rapid expansion along with competitive pressure in the market are still factors that can affect profit margins.
Evaluation from analysts
Many securities companies maintain a positive view of MSN shares. KBSV valued the stock at VND100,000/share using the SoTP method, based on the double-digit growth prospects at Masan Consumer, WinCommerce and Masan MEATLife. VCBS recommends MUA with a target price of VND 93,208/share. According to the report, the main driving force from WCM is expected to open more than 600 more stores in the year, MCH will expand its portfolio of high-end products and export markets, MML will benefit from high pork prices, while Masan High-Tech Materials (MHT) is expected to improve profit margins thanks to the recovery of international commodity prices. VCI also emphasized that MSN is a leading consumer - retail stock, with a target price of VND 101,000/share.
However, analysts are also paying attention to the risks to watch, including inconsistent recoveries in domestic consumption, geopolitical factors, supply chain disruptions and increased competitive pressure in the modern retail industry and FMCG.
As of the second quarter of 2025, Masan recorded after-tax profit after Pre-MI at VND 2,602 billion, nearly double the same period, equivalent to about 50% of the profit plan for the whole year (VND 4,8756,500 billion). This shows that the enterprise is maintaining a stable growth rate in many areas of operation.
