Directing capital flows into production and business
According to Dr. Can Van Luc - Chief Economist of BIDV, credit in the first quarter of 2026 is estimated to increase by 3.18% compared to the end of 2025, reflecting the recovery of investment and consumption activities, and also showing that capital flows are still operating in the economy. However, increased interest rate pressure in the past time has significantly impacted the cash flow structure. This forces credit institutions to raise deposit interest rates to ensure liquidity. Bank deposits also have to compete with many other investment channels such as gold, securities, real estate or digital assets, causing cash flows to tend to disperse and seek opportunities in different channels. However, according to Mr. Nguyen Trung Hieu - Deputy General Director of National Securities Joint Stock Company (NSI), the direction of credit management in 2026 of the State Bank shows that cash flow is clearly being led into the fields of production - business, industry, export and infrastructure. This is to create real surplus value for the economy, instead of flowing into speculative activities or asset accumulation. Mr. Hieu emphasized that Resolution 79 on the State economy is changing investment sentiment, with cash flow shifting to large state-owned enterprises.
Investors seek opportunities and shelter
Besides capital flowing into the manufacturing sector, market developments also show a shift between investment channels in the context of fluctuating interest rates. After a meeting between the State Bank of Vietnam and 46 commercial banks recently, the savings interest rate market has adjusted down significantly. According to Mr. Le Duc Khanh - Analyst Director of VPS Securities Company, when deposit interest rates decrease, in theory, the savings deposit channel becomes less attractive, thereby promoting cash flow to shift to riskier assets such as stocks and real estate. According to Mr. Khanh, the low interest rate environment not only affects "high beta" industry groups such as real estate or securities, but also spreads to many other sectors with high sensitivity to capital costs and consumer demand. In which, the securities group usually reacts fastest thanks to directly benefiting from liquidity and margin lending activities.
* Mr. Bui Van Huy - Vice Chairman of the Board of Directors of FIDT Investment Joint Stock Company - said that the real estate market in the first months of 2026 is more stagnant than expected, due to the level of interest rates rising again and credit for this sector being tightly controlled. This makes buyers' psychology become cautious, and liquidity recovers slowly. Investors currently tend to hold money and observe further developments in interest rates, exchange rates and selling prices. Cash flow no longer chases short-term price increase expectations, but prioritizes projects with clear legal status, good progress, reflecting a more cautious and selective investment trend. Trang Ngan
* Dr. Nguyen Minh Phong - economic expert, former Head of Economic Research Department, Hanoi Institute for Socio-Economic Development Research - said that at the present time, a significant portion of the cash flow is still in a waiting state. Gold prices are rising and the volatility of the foreign exchange market is also causing part of the capital flow to continue to be allocated to asset channels such as savings, real estate and securities. However, it is difficult to classify cash flow in the direction of "defensive" or "non-defensive", because each market has its own characteristics and each investor has different goals. Differentiating cash flow in the short or long term is also relatively difficult, because each investor has a different approach. According to Mr. Phong, in the coming time, real estate will still be one of the most noteworthy areas attracting cash flow, although the market is tending to stagnate in the short term due to interest rates and the psychology of waiting for price adjustments. Meanwhile, gold has gone through a period of strong increase and is no longer an attractive investment channel as before.
Nam Phong
