The stock market last week was affected by many external factors as well as domestic economic activities. Concerns about global trade war and its impact on exchange rates have caused general concern for investors.
Currently, some factors still show pressure on the market's ability to break out in the short term. Accordingly, although liquidity improved by about 10% compared to last week, it remained relatively low, only around VND14,000 billion/session.
This shows that cash flow has not really improved strongly, especially when the group of foreign investors still maintains a net selling status, causing cash flow to mainly come from domestic investors.
In addition, the differentiation of cash flow is still quite clear, focusing around the group of mid- to large-cap stocks, but has not shown strong consensus in the whole market.
Most cash flow chooses short-term stocks, not high- market types such as minerals, fertilizers, rubber, instead of choosing large groups of stocks such as banks, securities, real estate.
This shows that speculative cash flow is active and rotates faster, which will be the premise for any price increase wave. However, this cash flow also has great potential risks, when the signal is gone, it will cause certain concerns for the market.
Along with that, the weakening of large stocks is also a potential risk to the market, and marks the transition of cash flow from large stocks to smaller groups.
In general assessment of the market, many opinions say that with liquidity not really breaking out and cash flow differentiation, the possibility of VN-Index surpassing 1,280 - 1,300 points in the short term is still unclear.
Therefore, the scenario is high probability that the market will continue to accumulate below this resistance zone, waiting for more confirmation signals from cash flow as well as foreign investors in the coming time. The market still needs strong supporting information to pull the VN-Index back to 1,300 points.
The above developments reflect the complexity and unpredictability of the global economy in the current period. In that context, investors need to be cautious when allocating capital flows, especially in the face of potential risks from US tariff policies.
Dr. Nguyen Duy Phuong, Investment Director of DG Capital, commented that the VN-Index needs to soon break out of the 1,280-point resistance level clearly. Otherwise, a correction around the 1,260-point threshold is likely.
It is forecasted that cash flow will continue to rotate and prioritize small stocks, before there are clear adjustments. Investors should limit new and chasing purchases in this area, prioritize holding or taking profits.
It can be said that the 1,300-point mark continues to be an important resistance level of the VN-Index for more than two years, when the market has repeatedly approached but could not break out.
However, analysts from some securities companies also believe that the current context has a number of different factors that can support the index to get closer to this mark.
Although still affected by external macro uncertainties, domestic power is gradually recovering. The business results of listed enterprises show a continued improvement trend from the bottom in 2022.
The profit of the entire market in the fourth quarter of 2024 recorded an increase of 20.9% over the same period, creating a foundation for the increase of the VN-Index in January and expected to expand to February 2025.
In addition, market prospects are also reinforced by domestic growth momentum. The government has set a GDP target of 8% for 2025, with inflation expected to be around 4.5%-5%. Although this is an ambitious goal, the implementation measures are showing determination, especially in promoting total supply.
This includes promoting public investment disbursement, attracting FDI in the high-tech and manufacturing industries, and creating more favorable conditions for private investment.
