Gold price forecast to maintain upward momentum thanks to expectations of US interest rate cuts

Song Anh |

World gold prices are said to be in a consolidation phase around $4,000/ounce, as ETF capital flows stagnate and investors wait for new signals from the Fed.

"The stagnation in gold prices compared to September and October may show that the short-term floor of gold is becoming fragile" - according to the report of analysts at Standard Chartered Plc - a multinational bank in the UK.

The banks experts say gold prices are in a sideways state and await a new driver.

Gold prices remained stable after rising nearly 1% in the previous session, thanks to increased expectations of the possibility of the US continuing to cut interest rates.

The precious metal is trading around $4,160 an ounce, supported by a series of statements from Federal Reserve (Fed) officials showing the possibility of further monetary policy easing in the world's largest economy. Brokers are now assessing an 80% probability of another 0.25 percentage point rate cut in December, and the latest data on US unemployment claims is unlikely to force the Fed to change its rate cut plan.

Consolidating the prospect of low interest rates, a key economic advisor to US President Donald Trump is emerging as a leading candidate for the next Fed Chairman position. Mr. Kevin Hassett is expected to reflect the President's view of loosening monetary policy. Gold often benefits from low interest rates, as this is an asset that does not yield.

Gold prices have risen nearly 60% since the start of the year and are still on track for their best annual gains since 1979, despite falling slightly from a record high late last month.

The precious metal is supported by strong net buying by central banks and capital flows into gold ETFs, as investors step up withdrawals from government bonds and major currencies.

Since the recent correction, gold prices have remained stable above the threshold of 4,000 USD/ounce, with both up and down momentum quite limited. Over the past three weeks, capital flows into gold ETFs have been moving sideways, according to Bloomberg calculations.

As of 9:05 a.m. Singapore time, spot gold was almost unchanged at $4,160.06/ounce. The Bloomberg Dollar spot moved sideways after falling 0.3% in the previous session. Silver prices stabilized after rising 3.7% on Wednesday, approaching a record high. Palladium rose slightly, while platinum remained almost unchanged.

Song Anh
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