The Machine Learning-based gasoline price forecasting model of the Vietnam Petroleum Institute (VPI) shows that in the first operating period of the new year, January 2, 2025, retail gasoline prices tend to increase slightly from 0.3 - 0.5% if the Ministry of Finance - Industry and Trade does not set aside or use the Petroleum Price Stabilization Fund.
According to Mr. Doan Tien Quyet, data analysis expert of VPI, the gasoline price forecasting model applying the Artificial Neural Network (ANN) model and the supervised learning algorithm in Machine Learning of VPI predicts that the retail price of E5 RON 92 gasoline may increase slightly by 0.3% to 19,864 VND/liter, while RON 95-III gasoline may increase slightly by 0.4% to 20,617 VND/liter.
VPI's model predicts that retail oil prices this period may increase slightly by about 0.5%, bringing diesel prices to VND18,719/liter, kerosene to VND18,789/liter and fuel oil to VND16,043/kg. VPI predicts that the Ministry of Finance and Industry and Trade will continue not to set aside or use the Petroleum Price Stabilization Fund this period.
Oil prices may be further supported by a drop in US crude inventories of around 3 million barrels last week, according to Reuters. Meanwhile, oil market participants are also predicting that US President-elect Donald Trump will cut Iran's crude exports to below 500,000 barrels per day through sanctions, which would reduce crude oil supply to the market by more than 1 million barrels per day.
According to a representative of a petroleum business, domestic petroleum prices will fluctuate according to the world petroleum situation. According to current market developments, it is forecasted that in the next price adjustment period, petroleum prices will be adjusted in opposite directions, with gasoline prices increasing and oil prices decreasing. Of which, gasoline prices may increase by about 150 VND/liter; oil prices may decrease by about 60 VND/liter.
In the adjustment session on December 26, the price of E5 RON 92 gasoline decreased compared to the previous adjustment period, at 19,817 VND/liter (down 427 VND/liter). The price of RON 95-III gasoline decreased compared to the previous adjustment period, at 20,547 VND/liter (down 457 VND/liter).
Prices of petroleum products increased and decreased in different directions. Of which, diesel 0.05S is priced at 18,630 VND/liter (down 103 VND/liter); kerosene has a new price of 18,708 VND (down 260 VND/liter); mazut is priced at 15,970 VND/kg (up 67 VND/kg).
Also during this operating period, the operator did not set aside or use the Petroleum Price Stabilization Fund - BOG for all petroleum products.
