According to data released by the General Statistics Office, the consumer price index (CPI) in December 2024 increased by 0.29% compared to the previous month. Compared to the same period last year, the CPI increased by 2.94%, and on average, the CPI in 2024 increased by 3.63% compared to 2023. Thus, although the average inflation in 2024 tends to increase slightly compared to the 3.3% level in 2023, the inflation compared to the same period in December 2024 tends to decrease compared to the 3.6% level in December 2023.
The main reason for the decrease in inflation compared to the same period is that the impacts of increased prices of medical and educational services in Q3/2023 have been eliminated since Q3/2024.
As the money supply growth rate in 2024 is low at 9.42%, and oil prices and input material prices in 2025 are forecasted by the World Bank to decrease slightly, three inflation scenarios for 2025 can be considered.
In the baseline scenario, the USD/VND exchange rate is stable, the CPI is forecast to increase by an average of 0.23%/month and the average inflation for the whole year of 2025 will be around 3.0%.
In the low scenario, the world economy and Vietnam grow weakly, oil prices decrease significantly, and the USD price is stable or decreases slightly, the CPI may increase only 0.18%/month and average inflation will be around 2.7%.
In the high scenario, if the government adjusts service prices in the second half of 2025, average inflation could rise to 3.5%. For the low scenario, in case the world economy falls into recession in 2025, average inflation could fall to 2.5% or lower.
Overall, average inflation in 2025 is forecast to hover around 3.0% (+/- 0.5%) and 2025 will be the 11th consecutive year that inflation is kept below 4%.
According to Mr. Vu Vinh Phu - Economic expert, former Deputy Director of Hanoi Department of Trade, in 2025, conditions for production, business and distribution of goods will still face difficulties. The reason is due to fluctuations in world geopolitics, supply and demand of essential goods for production, and supply of energy products that always have fluctuations that we will have to depend on for a long time.
Meanwhile, domestic purchasing power has not yet recovered, coupled with unfavorable factors caused by natural disasters, climate change, coupled with high production and business costs, and deficiencies in the distribution system and competitiveness of enterprises...
"However, we believe that under the Government's strong direction, the targets set for 2025 such as GDP growth and inflation will certainly be achieved in the coming time, contributing to building a strong country and improving the spiritual and material life of the whole society," said Mr. Phu.
