Vietnam joins "8% club
In HSBC's report "Vietnam at a glance - Asian growth champion surpasses tariff storms", this organization identified 2025 as a volatile year for Vietnam. However, tariff concerns did not prevent the economy from achieving a high growth rate of 8% for the whole year, consistent with HSBC's forecast. This result helped Vietnam become the country with the highest growth rate in Asia in the past year.
Although it was widely predicted to be one of the high-tasking economies, Vietnam's trade not only did not be disrupted but also soared to a record high. Trade surplus continued to be maintained at a significant level. Notably, despite facing a 20% tariff from the US, Vietnam still gained more market share in certain items such as footwear, textiles and consumer electronics.
Stepping into 2026, Vietnam is no exception to the risk of global trade decline, but we believe that exporting "suitable" products (such as electronics) in the context of demand driven by artificial intelligence (AI) and increasing market share in the US may help Vietnam overcome some trade difficulties. In addition, we expect the focus on infrastructure development to continue in the new year, accelerating key major projects and promoting growth. Overall, we forecast GDP growth to reach 6.7% in 2026," HSBC forecasts.
What expectations for 2026?
An important political event that HSBC pays special attention to in 2026 is the 14th National Party Congress, scheduled to take place from January 19 to 25, 2026. In addition to monitoring senior personnel, great attention will be focused on Vietnam's socio-economic goals in the next 5 to 10 years.
HSBC believes that no matter what personnel results, Vietnam's economic policy is widely predicted to maintain consistency and have few significant changes. In the medium term, Vietnam continues to pursue the goal of becoming a high-middle-income country by 2030 and a high-income country by 2045.
In November 2025, the Vietnamese National Assembly approved a series of socio-economic targets for 2026, thereby revealing development orientations for the period 2026-2030. Accordingly, the growth target for 2026 is set at at least 10%, with GDP per capita expected to reach 5,400–5,500 USD.
HSBC noted that this double-digit growth target is based on GDP growth reaching a high of 8% last year, requiring a strong "boost" to achieve comprehensive growth, including superior trade, significant investment and strong consumption.
