Electricity consumption deviates from GDP growth: Statistics Department explains the reason

According to data from Vietnam Electricity Group (EVN), the total commercial electricity output in 2025 is estimated to reach 287.9 billion kWh, an increase of 4.9% compared to 2024, much lower than the increase of 9.24% in 2024 (compared to 2023). At the same time, it goes against the usual growth pattern when compared to the GDP growth rate in 2025 reaching 8.02%.

In normal conditions, commercial electricity growth is closely related to economic growth. When GDP increases, electricity demand for production, business and consumption usually increases correspondingly, even tending to increase faster due to the process of expanding production scale and increasing living standards.

However, the picture in 2025 shows a mismatch when the economy grew at a high level, but the total commercial electricity output only increased by 4.9%, reflecting notable changes in the electricity consumption structure and economic growth model.

Explaining this mismatch, Ms. Phi Thi Huong Nga - Director of the Department of Industrial and Construction Statistics (Department of Statistics, Ministry of Finance) said that there are 3 reasons.

First, in 2025, although the Government has been very drastic in directing and promoting public investment disbursement, many large infrastructure projects have been implemented, but the actual implementation progress is still not really strong. At the same time, the amount of electricity consumption for infrastructure construction investment projects is not large compared to the amount of electricity serving industrial production (currently accounting for over 50% of total commercial electricity consumption).

Second, in 2025, due to unusual weather dien bien, natural disasters, storms, floods, heavy rains with high intensity and frequency continuously occurring and lasting in many localities, from the North to the central coastal region, has significantly affected electricity demand and output consumption. In addition, the weather in 2025 is generally cooler than in 2023 and 2024.

Third, according to data from the Ministry of Industry and Trade, the Statistics Office collected, self-generating rooftop solar power is installed more and more and the proportion is increasingly large in the electricity consumption structure. In the electricity consumption structure in 2025, we estimate that self-generating rooftop solar power accounts for about more than 10 billion kWh, equivalent to nearly 4% of the total commercial electricity output for the whole year. This also contributes to reducing pressure on the electricity system.

In terms of electricity consumption structure for the whole year 2025, the total increase in commercial electricity output reached 4.9%. In which, electricity for agriculture, forestry, and fishery sectors increased by 1.1%, accounting for 3.5% of total electricity consumption. Electricity for industry and construction accounted for about 53% of total electricity consumption, up to 7.22%. According to observations, this increase is relatively consistent with the industrial production index. Electricity for the commercial, hotel, and restaurant sectors accounted for about 5.4% and increased by 4.8% compared to the same period in 2024. Electricity for residential consumption accounted for about 33.7% of total electricity consumption, only increasing by about 1.1%. It was the fact that electricity for residential sectors only increased by 1.1% while accounting for a large proportion of 33.7% that helped the overall increase of the country's entire electricity system to 4.9%.

According to Deputy Director of the Statistics Office Le Trung Hieu, regarding the relationship between electricity growth and economic growth, it is necessary to clearly separate electricity for production and electricity for residential consumption. Data shows that electricity for industry - construction still has a fairly high increase. In the coming time, new investment projects in industries that consume a lot of electricity such as cement, iron and steel, chemicals, when these enterprises go into operation, will strongly increase electricity consumption, thereby clarifying the relationship between electricity, production and economic growth.