Forecast of gasoline price reduction in the next adjustment session

Anh Tuấn |

Gasoline prices at the December 5 adjustment period are forecast to decrease following the world trend, with a decrease of about 300 VND/liter.

On the morning of December 3, on the world market, gasoline and oil prices remained almost unchanged, Brent oil lost 1 cent to 71.83 USD/barrel; WTI oil price increased 10 cents, equivalent to 0.15%, to 68.1 USD/barrel.

The market is being affected by two main factors: hopes for stronger demand in China; and concerns that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will not cut interest rates at its meeting in the middle of this month.

A private sector survey showed China’s manufacturing activity grew at its fastest pace in five months in November, Reuters reported, while the ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah, which took effect on November 27, appears increasingly fragile as the conflict continues.

Analysts see geopolitical risks rising despite the ceasefire remaining in effect. Investors are concerned about whether escalating tensions in the Middle East could expand and affect oil supplies. So far, the ongoing conflict in the Middle East has not affected global oil supplies.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) is scheduled to meet on December 5 to decide on policy for the first months of 2025. The group may postpone increasing production to preserve prices when the market is finding it difficult to find an upward momentum. On the contrary, the risk of downward volatility is always possible.

For the domestic market, gasoline prices are currently linked to the world market, so according to the forecast of a number of gasoline distribution and trading enterprises in Hanoi, in the next adjustment session (Thursday, December 5, 2024), gasoline prices are expected to decrease simultaneously.

Of which, E5 RON 92 gasoline is forecast to decrease by 330 VND/liter; Ron 95 gasoline is forecast to decrease by 50 VND/liter; DO oil is forecast to decrease by 340 VND/liter. The above forecast prices do not take into account the authorities' allocation or use of the Petroleum Price Stabilization Fund. In case the regulatory agency uses it, the gasoline price will increase less.

On November 28, domestic gasoline prices were adjusted according to the developments of the world market. In this adjustment period, the Ministry of Industry and Trade - Ministry of Finance did not set aside or use the Gasoline Price Stabilization Fund for E5 RON 92 gasoline, RON 95 gasoline, diesel oil, kerosene, and fuel oil.

Thus, the common gasoline prices on the market from December 2, 2024 are as follows:

The price of E5 RON 92 gasoline increased by 497 VND/liter, at a level not higher than 19,840 VND/liter, lower than RON 95-III gasoline by 1,155 VND/liter;

RON 95-III gasoline price increased by 329 VND/liter, at a level not higher than 20,857 VND/liter;

The price of 0.05S diesel increased by 268 VND/liter, at a level not higher than 18,777 VND/liter;

Kerosene price increased by 221 VND/liter, at a level not higher than 19,142 VND/liter;

The price of 180CST 3.5S fuel oil increased by VND111/kg, at a level not higher than VND16,125/kg.

Anh Tuấn
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How is gasoline price expected to be adjusted in the next operating session?

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