Despite increased fluctuations both domestically and internationally, Vietnam's economic growth still shows resilience, thanks to support policies. With the results of the first 9 months of 2025, many international organizations have positive forecasts for Vietnam's GDP growth in 2025.
At the end of September, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) raised its forecast for Vietnam's economic growth to 6.7% in 2025, due to active export and FDI investment activities despite countervailing taxes from the US.
Mr. Nguyen Ba Hung - ADB economic expert assessed that the forecast increase is based on many positive factors of the economy in the first months of the year. In particular, foreign export and investment activities continue to increase, despite the impact of US tariffs.
Previously, UOB Bank also raised its forecast for Vietnam's GDP this year to 7.5%, up 0.6% from the previous level. The World Bank (WB) believes that economic growth for the whole year could reach 6.6%, thanks to the consolidation of strong growth (7.5%) in the first half of the year.
According to Dr. Can Van Luc and the Authorities of BIDV Training and Research Institute, with the positive growth results of the first 9 months of the year and relatively competitive and breakthrough tariffs in terms of institutions, the investment - business environment continues to improve; growth drivers (both traditional and new) are exploited..., Vietnam's economy is forecast to increase by 8-8.2% for the whole year 2025 (basic scenario) or more positively, about 8.3-8.5% (positive scenario). Accordingly, to achieve a growth rate of 8-8.2% for the whole year of 2025 or higher, in the fourth quarter of 2025, GDP growth needs to reach at least about 8.4-8.8%.
Regarding inflation, in the fourth quarter of 2025, inflationary pressures may increase more strongly due to both cost-push factors (higher prices of imported goods due to US tariffs, increasing prices of goods managed by the State) and attraction factors (credit growth is estimated at 18-20%, money turnover is 0.7-0.8 times higher than in 2024 to meet capital needs for higher growth).
However, the average CPI in 2025 is forecast to be 3.8-4%, higher than in 2024 (3.63%) but still below the National Assembly's target (4.5%) thanks to the resonance impact of factors supporting inflation control, the supply of essential goods and services in the country is guaranteed; exchange rates, basic interest rates are stable and policy coordination is increasingly better.
To achieve the above growth target, the BIDV Training and Research Institute proposes to effectively implement the strategic policies of the Politburo; thoroughly overcome difficulties and obstacles in the operation of local government at both levels; accelerate the substantial improvement of the investment - business environment. Proactively and flexibly adapt to US tariff policies.
Effectively implement consumer stimulus policies; renew traditional growth drivers and strongly promote new growth drivers. Improve the effectiveness of policy management and coordination, especially monetary policy, fiscal policy and other macro policies. Finally, it is necessary to promote economic restructuring, focusing on improving growth quality.
