The April 2026 Asia Development Outlook report, ADB's key annual economic publication, continues to maintain positive prospects for Vietnam in the short term.
According to ADB, strong exports before the United States adjusted counterpart tariffs, stable support and investment policies have helped Vietnam's economy grow steadily in the past year. However, US trade measures are changing, conflicts in the Middle East and broader global incertitudes may limit exports and investment flows, increasing pressure on growth prospects this year.
Mr. Shantanu Chakraborty - Country Director of ADB in Vietnam - assessed that the Vietnamese Government has reacted quickly to the disruption of energy supply caused by the conflict in the Middle East.
Time-limited fiscal measures, including tax cuts, the use of the price stabilization fund, combined with flexible price management and strengthened coordination to ensure supply, have contributed to curbing inflationary pressure in the short term and supporting growth. In the long term, improving energy efficiency, diversifying supply sources and accelerating the transition to clean energy will play a key role, helping to reduce vulnerability to future shocks," Mr. Shantanu Chakraborty assessed.
According to ADB, the risks of decline are still significant. The prolonged conflict in the Middle East could disrupt the flow of oil, gas and fertilizer through the Strait of Hormuz, increasing transportation costs and causing delays. Along with the conflict in Ukraine, these developments increase commodity price volatility and continue to put pressure on the global supply chain. Slowing growth at major trading partners may also narrow trade surpluses and slow down Vietnam's growth rate.
Mr. Nguyen Ba Hung - ADB's chief economist in Vietnam - said that ADB forecasts Vietnam's economy to grow 7.2% in 2026 and 7% in 2027. These forecasts are built according to the scenario that the conflict situation in the Middle East will soon stabilize, but still face a very high level of instability.
The driving force for growth in 2026 comes from promoting public investment and implementing loose monetary policy. Although FDI and exports are still the main drivers of growth, adverse external factors, including conflicts in the Middle East and US tariff policies, may affect investment flows and export activities. Inflation is forecast to increase to 4.0% in 2026 and then decrease to 3.8% in 2027," Mr. Hung said.
ADB representatives assessed that, from a policy action perspective, strengthening the corporate bond market is an essential factor in mobilizing long-term financial resources in addition to bank credit and supporting sustainable investment. Enhancing transparency, ensuring a consistent legal framework and expanding the participation of market actors will be key to improving investor confidence and improving market efficiency.
If implemented effectively, the reforms being promoted in this field can help position the corporate bond market as a stable long-term financial supply, serving sustainable and inclusive growth" - ADB representative recommended.
