Vietnam's economic picture in the first 11 months of 2025 is assessed as relatively positive despite challenges from trade protection trends and global economic instability. This shows that the Vietnamese economy is on the right track, with increasingly high resilience and adaptability.
Forecasting economic growth for the whole year of 2025, Dr. Nguyen Minh Phong - an economic expert said that with the results of the past 11 months, the rate of 8% is very certain. However, the likelihood of reaching 8.3-8.5% depends on the pace of the last month of the year, but there is reason to be optimistic.
"Normally, in the last month of the year, there is always a strong acceleration in both public investment disbursement, export and production and consumption. The Government has just issued many instructions to promote 100% disbursement, and established working groups to handle procedural problems. In addition, the peak consumption season at the end of the year with holidays will create more momentum" - Dr. Nguyen Minh Phong assessed.
With optimistic data for the first 11 months of 2025, many international organizations have also positively forecast Vietnam's economic growth. At the Vietnam Economic - Financial Forum 2025, Mr. Nguyen Ba Hung - chief economist of the Asian Development Bank (ADB) - said that ADB has just adjusted down the GDP growth forecast of developing countries in Asia to 4.8% in 2025 and 4.5% in 2026. In the context of the general slowdown trend, Vietnam is one of the few economies that maintains a high growth rate, leading Southeast Asia.
Mr. Jochen Schmittmann - Permanent Representative of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in Vietnam, Laos and Cambodia assessed that Vietnam is maintaining impressive resilience to global fluctuations: growth in the first 9 months of the year reached 7.85%; investment and consumption recovered strongly; exports increased by more than 18% over the same period.
In the latest report published in early December on global economic prospects, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) adjusted the forecast for Vietnam's GDP growth to 6.2% for 2026 and 5.8% for 2027. This is a positive signal showing that the Vietnamese economy continues to maintain a solid macro foundation, even in the context of many uncertainties in international trade.
The OECD assessed that 2025 will record a strong "push-up" of the Vietnamese economy, with GDP in the third quarter of 2025 increasing by 8.2% over the same period last year. The main drivers continue to come from final consumption, accumulation of fixed assets and export of goods and services.
HSBC has also raised its growth forecast for Vietnam to 7.9% for 2025 and 6.7% for 2026. This is also the closest forecast compared to Vietnam's growth target in 2025, which is over 8%. Or United Overseas Bank (UOB) also raised Vietnam's 2025 growth forecast from 7.5% to 7.7% in the Q4 Economic Prospects Report.
