Stock market growth room is limited in the short term

Gia Miêu |

September is a period of accumulation, not yet the beginning of a new upward cycle of the stock market.

After a decrease of more than 31 points in the first session of the week, VN-Index recovered nearly 9 points in the session on September 8. However, cash flow was quite cautious, while foreign investors continued to net sell hundreds of billions of VND.

The price movement of VN-Index is still dependent on a few pillar stocks, the low spread rate leads to unpredictable developments. In addition, order matching liquidity on the HOSE floor also decreased by 20.9% compared to the previous session.

Therefore, experts assess that VN-Index only technically rebounded after a declining session, and the general cautious sentiment has not changed.

According to the September strategic report of the Research Department of SSI Securities Company (SSI Research), VN-Index increased by 5.6% in August and increased by 11% compared to the July bottom, with many stocks currently trading 15-20% higher than the bottom of July. This recovery level is similar to the 10-15% range commonly seen in a sideways market, thereby leaving a fairly limited room for price increase in the short term.

SSI Research expects the market to enter a phase of accumulation and bear stronger selling pressure in the second half of September, once capital from FTSE upgrades has been absorbed. Looking back at the past, liquidity in September has not improved much compared to August, so cash flow is likely to rotate between industry groups rather than creating a clear trend across the market. In that context, investors should prioritize defensive stocks and maintain a selective mindset.

Currently, market liquidity is still maintained at a moderate level, with an average trading value of 18.7 trillion VND per session, significantly lower than the average of 26.9 trillion VND for the first 8 months of 2026 and 28.9 trillion VND for 2025.

This shows that the recovery is mainly driven by cooling selling pressure, not by strong enough buying demand to overwhelm selling momentum. This is the key point to note for September.

Regarding the story of FTSE upgrade, it will not lie in the September event, but in whether Vietnam can have a larger proportion of its economic value thanks to stocks with high liquidity, easy access and investment at the institutional level or not?", SSI Research observed.

In the early months of September, the first passive capital disbursement of the upgrade process may support component stocks in the FTSE basket. As this support gradually declines, priority is given to rotating to stock groups with solid profit growth, along with stocks with high net cash flow, attractive dividend yields and defensive stocks such as utility stocks and electricity industry stocks.

Therefore, SSI Research maintains a cautious position in September, but still maintains a positive view on medium and long-term strategy when entering the end of 2026 - early 2027. The next disbursement phase of the market upgrade process and the profit cycle that is gradually recovering is the reflection of the market on the process of transforming resources into actual efficiency: from growth in quantity to growth in quality (productivity and sustainable value).

The recommendation given by securities companies to short-term investors is to increase the proportion in correction phases instead of chasing, and at the same time partially take profits in the resistance zone and pay attention to stock groups with their own stories such as divestment or market upgrades.For medium and long-term investors, this unit believes that they should take advantage of fluctuations in the support zone to gradually accumulate bank, securities, retail, technology and public investment stocks.


Gia Miêu
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