VN-Index entering September has many catalysts, especially the FTSE upgrade roadmap is approaching. However, macroeconomic risks can still cause VN-Index to fluctuate strongly.
According to the viewpoint of some securities analysts, there are three macroeconomic variables that will strongly impact Vietnamese stocks in the coming time.
First, the domestic interest rate level. Deposit and lending interest rates are still low, creating conditions for cash flow to shift from savings to stocks. However, if the pressure of the USD/VND exchange rate or inflation increases, the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) may manage monetary policy more cautiously, affecting liquidity and capital costs, especially in the real estate and securities groups.
Second, if the Fed continues its interest rate cut policy, the USD and VND interest rate difference will narrow, reducing exchange rate pressure and creating conditions for foreign capital to return to emerging and frontier markets, including Vietnam.
With passive capital expected to disburse the first tranche of about 100 million USD on the occasion of Vietnamese stocks being added to the FTSE Emerging portfolio, and active capital that may go ahead to anticipate the upgrade story, September is likely to be the first month that foreign investors switch to net buying after a long period of continuous net selling. Conversely, if the Fed delays or sends a more hawkish signal than expected, exchange rates and foreign capital may be under pressure again in the short term.
Third, geopolitical factors are also something to pay attention to. Global trade tensions, US reciprocal tax policies and supply chain risks, oil prices and regional conflicts are still unpredictable unknowns. These factors can cause short-term fluctuations, especially for export stock groups, such as textiles, seafood, wood, industrial park real estate and foreign capital flow psychology in Vietnam.
Meanwhile, regarding the trading trend of the market, the quality story of the current upward momentum is what investors need to pay attention to. Looking back at the trading session on September 4, VN-Index increased by 25.36 points to 1,853.08 points, but VIC contributed 18.59 points, equivalent to 73% of the index's increase; if VHM is added, the rate is up to 85%. Meanwhile, market breadth still leans towards decline with 128 gainers and 176 losers.
From August 21 to September 4, VN-Index increased by 4.8%, but mid-cap stocks on HOSE decreased by 0.82% and only 39% of stocks increased in price. This shows that the diễn biến of the index is significantly more positive than most of the investor portfolio.
In the coming time, investors need to monitor the "strength" of VIC and Vingroup, because VIC has increased by 24.9% in just 10 sessions. At the same time, observe liquidity when the first two sessions of September only reached 17,500 billion VND and 16,741 billion VND respectively, lower than the previous week's average of about 19,000 billion VND. Liquidity must exceed 20,000 billion VND/session will be a more positive signal to confirm the trend.
Regarding the influence of stock groups, in the past week, the real estate group has risen to the absolute leading position with more than 30% of total trading value, surpassing Banks, which maintained around 26%. These two groups accounted for more than 56% of the total market liquidity in just one session, largely thanks to the increase of VIC and VHM pulling the entire real estate industry up.
The deeper cause lies in the nature of a wave cycle compressed by expensive capital costs. Deposit interest rates are currently anchored at 8 - 10%/year, margin interest rates are commonly 13.5 - 14%/year, making large cash flow unable to spread and forced to accumulate in large-liquidity stocks.
This is even more grounded when looking at the valuation: The overall P/E of VN-Index is around 12.6 times, but if excluding Vingroup, it is only about 10.6 times, a fairly cheap valuation range compared to profit growth. Industries such as Technology, Retail, and Healthcare still account for less than 3% of the total transaction value, without significant improvement.
With the current developments, experts assess that short-term cash flow still prioritizes large capitalization groups and the ecosystem that is leading the index, which is not enough basis to expect a comprehensive spread.
