The summary report on the results of the implementation of the socio-economic development plan for 2025 and 5 years 2021-2025 submitted by the Government to the National Assembly at the 10th Session said that the Vietnamese economy affirmed its resilience to external shocks, maintaining growth rate among the world's top highs.
Accordingly, GDP in 2025 is expected to increase by over 8%; the average period in 2021-2025 will increase by 6.3%, higher than the previous period (6.2%). In 2021, due to the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, growth will only reach 2.55%; in the fourth period of 2022-2025, growth will be an average of 7.2%/year, exceeding the target of 6.5-7%.
The size of the economy will increase from 346 billion USD in 2020 to 510 billion USD in 2025, up 5 ranks, to 32nd place in the world; GDP per capita in 2025 is estimated to reach about 5,000 USD, 1.4 times higher than in 2020, in the high-middle-income group.
With the positive results of the economy in the first 3 quarters of the year, many international organizations have also adjusted to increase Vietnam's growth forecast. In particular, HSBC has raised its growth forecast for Vietnam to 7.9% for 2025 and 6.7% for 2026. This is also the closest forecast compared to Vietnam's growth target in 2025, which is over 8%.
HSBC emphasized that Vietnam's surprisingly 8.2% increase in the third quarter was "only of a class". This result is much higher than the market's expectations of 7.2% over the same period last year, making Vietnam once again the fastest growing economy in Southeast Asia.
Most recently, United Overseas Bank (UOB) also raised Vietnam's 2025 growth forecast from 7.5% to 7.7% in the Q4 Economic Prospects Report. According to UOB, Vietnam's outstanding achievements in recent times mainly come from vibrant international trade activities and strong increases in production output. This forecast is also close to the target of over 8% set by Vietnam.
In the Macroeconomic Report published at the end of October 2025, Standard Chartered Bank raised its forecast for Vietnam's GDP growth in 2025 to 7.5% (in the July report, Standard Chartered Bank forecasted Vietnam's growth in 2025 to 6.1%). The forecast growth rate for 2026 has also been increased to 7.2%.
This unit assessed that Vietnam is consolidating its position in the global supply chain thanks to strong trade activities and extensive integration. Of which, total export turnover in September 2025 reached 42.7 billion USD, up 24.7% over the same period last year. This growth is driven by key industry groups: Electronics, computers, phones and machinery reflecting the continuous expansion of industrial manufacturing and investment.
According to Mr. Tim Leelahaphan - Senior Economist in charge of Vietnam and Thailand of Standard Chartered Bank - shared: "Vietnam's resilience and adaptability are demonstrated by successfully attracting strong FDI flows, stable export growth, and strengthening Vietnam's strategic role in diversifying the global supply chain and showing strong prospects for continuous economic growth".
