In the third quarter of 2025, Vietnam's GDP increased by 8.22% over the same period last year, only lower than the increase of 14.38% of the same period in 2022 in the period 2011-2025.
The main driving force comes from strong growth in the processing and manufacturing industry, vibrant service sector and sustainable recovery of domestic consumption. Exports of goods also recorded improvement, especially in the electronics, textile and seafood groups when demand from major markets increased again. In response to this positive result, many international organizations have adjusted their forecasts for Vietnam's economic growth.
The United Overseas Bank (UOB) Q4 Economic outlook Report raises Vietnam's 2025 growth forecast from 7.5% to 7.7%. According to UOB, Vietnam's outstanding achievements in recent times mainly come from vibrant international trade activities and strong increases in production output.
However, UOB also noted that Vietnam's trade activities have remained stable to date, but the potential scenario is that export orders may begin to decrease when US businesses have completed early orders to avoid taxes and rising prices affecting the purchasing power of US consumers, especially in 2026.
UOB's forecast is currently second to be optimistic among international organizations, after HSBC raised its forecast to 7.9% at the end of last month. HSBC's report emphasized that Vietnam's surprising increase of 8.22% in the third quarter was "only one-class". This result is much higher than the market's expectations of 7.2% over the same period last year, making Vietnam once again the fastest growing economy in Southeast Asia.
Previously, in the Macroeconomic Report released at the end of October 2025, Standard Chartered Bank raised its forecast for Vietnam's GDP growth in 2025 to 7.5% (in the July report, Standard Chartered Bank forecasted Vietnam's growth in 2025 to 6.1%). The forecast growth rate for 2026 has also been increased to 7.2%.
This unit assessed that Vietnam is consolidating its position in the global supply chain thanks to strong trade activities and extensive integration. Of which, total export turnover in September 2025 reached 42.7 billion USD, up 24.7% over the same period last year. This growth is driven by key industry groups: Electronics, computers, phones and machinery reflecting the continuous expansion of industrial manufacturing and investment.
Standard Chartered experts also commented that Vietnam's foreign balance remains strong, supported by strong trade flows and stable exchange rate prospects
According to Mr. Tim Leelahaphan - Senior Economist in charge of Vietnam and Thailand of Standard Chartered Bank - shared: "Vietnam's resilience and adaptability are demonstrated by successfully attracting strong FDI flows, stable export growth, and strengthening Vietnam's strategic role in diversifying the global supply chain and showing strong prospects for continuous economic growth".
