Domestic coffee prices
On October 28, coffee prices in key Central Highlands regions fell sharply by VND1,300/kg, bringing the average price in the whole region down to VND115,500/kg. This decrease has erased last week's upward results.
Specifically, in Dak Nong (old), the price decreased the most by VND 1,500/kg, to VND 115,500/kg. Dak Lak decreased by 1,300 VND/kg, down to 115,700 VND/kg. Gia Lai and Lam Dong both decreased by VND 1,200/kg, to VND 115,300/kg and VND 114,500/kg. This price is currently about 6,500 VND/kg lower than the August peak (122,000 VND/kg).
World coffee prices
The international coffee market had a terrible sell-off, ending last week's recovery.
Robusta ( London) lost 134 USD/ton, equivalent to a decrease of 2.92%, closing at 4,437 USD/ton.
Arabica (New York) also plummeted, losing 12.90 US cents/lb, equivalent to a decrease of 3.19%, closing at 390.10 US cents/lb. This synchronous and strong decline shows that panic sentiment has returned to the market.
Assessment and forecast
The main reason for today's price decline is the hope that the US and Brazil can soon reach a trade deal. The Brazilian president said he had a "good" meeting with President Trump and that there could be a "final solution" in the next few days. If a 50% tax on Brazilian goods (including coffee) is lifted, concerns about supply shortages will ease significantly, and this is the main reason why investors are selling simultaneously.
In addition, the Vietnam Cocoa Coffee Association (Vicofa) also forecasts that Vietnam's coffee output in the 2025/26 crop year could be 10% higher than last year if the weather is favorable. This information further increases the downward pressure on prices, especially for Robusta coffee.
However, there are still factors that can help prices not fall too much. The drought in Brazil is still very serious, with the main coffee growing region receiving only a little rain (1% of the average), continuing to threaten the upcoming crop. In addition, the amount of coffee in stock on international exchanges is still very low.
The short-term forecast has turned clearly negative. News of the possibility of Brazil's tariff relief is having a big impact, overwhelming concerns about low inventory or drought.
