Domestic coffee prices
Opening the first trading session of the week on May 18, 2026, the domestic coffee market recorded a widespread sharp decline, cutting off the previous accumulation series. The general level of raw material purchase price officially lost the 88,000 VND mark, falling deeply to the average threshold of 87,000 VND/kg.
In Dak Nong (old): Reduced by 600 VND, retreating to 87. 200 VND/kg (still the highest level in the region).
In Dak Lak and Gia Lai: Both decreased by 700 VND, currently trading stably at the 87,000 VND/kg mark.
In Lam Dong: Recorded the strongest adjustment when losing 900 VND, pushing the purchase price down to 86.2 million VND/kg.
Following the same trend, pepper prices today also evaporated by 1,000 VND, falling to 142,000 VND/kg. Meanwhile, the USD/VND exchange rate at Vietcombank traded stably at 26,107 VND/USD.
World coffee prices
Last weekend's closing session witnessed massive sell-off pressure from speculative funds, causing international coffee prices to fall very sharply.
New York Stock Exchange (Arabica): July futures (KCN26) fell sharply by 8.80 cents (-3.19%), closing at 266.90 cents/lb. This is the lowest level of this coffee line in the past 9 months.
London Stock Exchange (Robusta): July futures (RMN26) witnessed a free "drop" when losing up to 122 USD (-3.50%), falling deeply to 3, 365 USD/ton, hitting a 1-week low.
Coffee price assessment
The core factor sparking this terrible depreciation is the weakening of the Brazilian Real when this currency slipped to its 5-week low against the USD. The depreciation of the domestic currency has stimulated Brazilian farmers to boost export sales to the international market to earn more Real, directly creating short-term supply pressure.
Market sentiment becomes even more pessimistic as information about a "super bumper" crop in South America becomes increasingly clear. The Coffee Transaction Institute (CTA) forecasts that Brazil's upcoming harvest output will increase by 12% to 71.4 million bags, while StoneX forecasts that the global surplus in 2026 will expand to 10 million bags. In addition, Vietnam's export report for the first 4 months of the year increased sharply by 15.8% (reaching 810,000 tons), continuing to sow more long-term concerns about oversupply for global roasters.
However, the decline in coffee still has a solid "protective net" from technical bottlenecks. Robusta inventories on the ICE exchange as of Friday have reached a record low in the past 2 years with only 3,631 lots, while Arabica has also fallen to a 2.5-month low. In addition, the fact that the Strait of Hormuz maintains a closed state due to Middle East tensions is still increasing freight, fuel and fertilizer prices very high. The current decline is assessed as technical adjustment as cash flow shifts, but pressure from Brazil's new harvest is really becoming the biggest challenge for the recovery of coffee prices in the coming weeks.
