At the end of the trading session, global Brent oil prices recorded little volatility, continuing to maintain above 67 USD/barrel after falling nearly 2% in the previous trading session. Meanwhile, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil prices traded stably around the 62 USD/barrel mark. This development occurred right after Tehran announced that it had reached a "common agreement" with Washington on potential nuclear terms, opening up hope for a diplomatic way out for prolonged sanctions.
According to Bloomberg, a US official revealed that Iranian negotiators are expected to return to Geneva with a new proposal in the next two weeks. However, the market is still in a state of "holding its breath" due to tough statements from the US. Vice President J.D. Vance emphasized that Iran must still respect the "red lines" that President Donald Trump has established. It is the interweaving of diplomatic expectations and military risks that has prevented oil prices from establishing a clear trend.
Besides the nuclear story, investors are also concerned about military moves at energy "bottleneck points". Iran has just announced the closure of part of the Hormuz Strait – the world's oil transport artery – for a few hours to serve exercises. In response, the US immediately deployed a second aircraft carrier to the area. Concerns about sudden supply disruptions are the important factor hindering the sharp drop in oil prices, despite warnings about a global supply surplus.
In another development, negotiations mediated by the US between Ukraine and Russia in Geneva are also being closely monitored. Analysts believe that any peaceful solution to lift sanctions against Moscow will immediately release huge oil flows back to the international market, creating strong downward pressure.
However, trading volume in today's Asian session recorded a lower than normal level because many countries, including the world's largest oil importer, China, and the Singapore trading center, are on Lunar New Year holiday. The absence of "giants" makes the market lack the usual excitement, keeping oil prices temporarily stable before receiving new shocks.
