On August 26, the Government announced Decree 232/2025/ND-CP, ending the monopoly mechanism in the production of gold bars, export and import of raw gold. This is considered a strategic turning point in the process of restructuring the gold market, expected to gradually reduce the gap between domestic gold prices and the world.
However, immediately after the announcement, the price of SJC gold bars continued to increase sharply. In just three days, gold prices have skyrocketed from 126 - 128 million VND/tael (August 27) to 127.4 - 128.9 million VND/tael (morning of August 29), the highest ever.
Mr. Nguyen Quang Huy, CEO of the Faculty of Finance - Banking (Nguyen Trai University) commented: "The policy has opened a new roadmap, but the market is reacting mainly based on psychology and expectations".
According to Mr. Huy, the removal of monopoly and permission of commercial banks to participate in the production of gold bars is of strategic significance, helping to increase competitiveness, diversify supply and move towards a more stable market.
However, these impacts are not immediate. The licensing of production, the construction of production lines, the organization of supervision and especially the building of social trust takes a period of time. During this period, the market sentiment of " rare gold - price will increase" is still strong, leading to escalating prices and widespread buying - selling gaps.
Mr. Huy said: "From the decree to the implementation, it can take several months, even several years to form a new trust and system. This is a gap that makes it difficult for gold prices to fall immediately but continues to fluctuate strongly".
One of the biggest barriers is the habits and beliefs of the people. After many years, the SJC brand has become the default for gold bars. To accept new products manufactured by commercial banks, the market needs a testament to quality, safety and liquidity. If trust is not strengthened, the phenomenon of brand difference can appear, leading to the risk of smuggling and distorting the market, Mr. Huy warned.
In addition, speculative psychology continues to be the dominant factor. Gold is still considered a safe haven, so even if supply improves, prices may be pushed up by short-term speculative cash flow. The large gap between domestic and world gold prices, combined with expectations of exchange rate fluctuations, further increases this trend.
To move towards a transparent market, Mr. Huy said that it is necessary to synchronously deploy many solutions: Not only stopping at expanding production, but also having a transparent mechanism for importing raw gold, controlling speculation and developing the account gold market. Only by combining these solutions can the goal of balancing supply - demand and narrowing the gap with the world be achieved sustainably".
Looking at the medium and long-term prospects, Mr. Huy commented that Decree 232/2025 opens a comprehensive roadmap for restructuring the gold market, gradually reducing dependence on a single brand and adding more participants. However, this path is not easy. Success depends largely on strengthening market confidence and establishing a transparent management framework.
The new policy has opened a positive direction, but success or failure will depend on implementation and social trust. When trust is established, the market will gradually stabilize, the gap with the world will be narrowed sustainably, Mr. Huy emphasized.
Meanwhile, domestic gold prices are still at a record high, showing the dominance of speculative psychology. The stabilization roadmap may have to wait longer, when changes in supply and management are truly coming into life.
