Gold and silver prices fluctuated in opposite directions in the last trading session of Monday, as US bond yields rose, the USD strengthened, and rising oil prices continued to put pressure on the group of precious metals, despite geopolitical risks remaining high.
At the time of recording, spot gold prices retreated to around 4,533.09 USD/ounce, slightly down 0.17%, while silver edged up 0.06% to 72.74 USD/ounce. The daily fluctuation range of gold is in the range of 4,502.40 - 4,630.70 USD/ounce, while silver fluctuates from 72.10 - 76.12 USD/ounce.
Recent US economic data continues to show that the economy maintains good resilience, thereby weakening expectations of monetary policy easing - a factor that often supports gold prices. Specifically, factory orders in March increased by 1.5% to 630.4 billion USD, far exceeding the forecast of 0.5%. Delivery volume increased by 1.4%, while inventory increased by 0.6%.
Previously, the manufacturing PMI index released by ISM also showed that the US manufacturing sector expanded for the fourth consecutive month, reaching 52.7 points in April. These signals reinforce the view that the economy is still strong enough, thereby reducing the possibility of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) soon cutting interest rates.
Pressure on gold therefore mainly comes from financial factors. The yield of 10-year US government bonds increased to nearly 4.44%, while the USD Index increased by 0.32% to 98.472 points. A strong USD makes gold less attractive to international investors, while increasing the opportunity cost of non-performing assets.
Meanwhile, oil prices continued to remain high due to escalating tensions in the Middle East. WTI oil traded around 104.88 USD/barrel, while Brent reached about 113.56 USD/barrel, at times increasing by nearly 6%. Risks in the Strait of Hormuz raised concerns about prolonged inflation, thereby strengthening expectations that interest rates will remain high longer - a disadvantageous factor for gold.
Investors are currently closely monitoring US labor market data as well as signals from the Fed to assess whether the energy price shock is only delayed or may change the monetary easing cycle. The minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting at the end of April, expected to be released on May 20, are considered key information.
Technically, gold prices are still under pressure as they cannot overcome the resistance zone of 4, 530 – 4,568 USD/ounce. If they lose the support level of 4,502 USD/ounce, the price may fall deeper to 4, 485, even 4, 450 USD/ounce.
For silver, the near resistance zone is at 73 – 73.5 USD/ounce. In the opposite direction, if the 72.10 USD/ounce mark cannot be maintained, the price may continue to fall to 71 USD, even 70 USD/ounce in the short term.
