World gold prices are forecast to continue to fluctuate strongly next week as the market is simultaneously affected by a strong USD, high oil prices due to the war in the Middle East and the outlook for US monetary policy.
In the past week, this precious metal has been under significant pressure as the USD appreciated and concerns about inflation have weakened expectations that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will soon cut interest rates. According to analysts, this trend may continue to dominate the gold market in the short term.
Analysts believe that gold prices are currently still fluctuating in the range of 5,000-5,200 USD/ounce and are likely to continue to fluctuate in this range as investors wait for more signals about interest rates and geopolitical situation.
Another important factor affecting gold is the diễn biến of oil prices. The conflict in the Middle East has caused oil prices to rise sharply, raising concerns about global inflation. When inflation is at risk of increasing, central banks, especially the Fed, are often more cautious in loosening monetary policy. This causes borrowing costs to remain high, thereby reducing the attractiveness of gold - an asset that does not yield yields.
Economists also noted that rising energy prices could cause US inflation to rise again this year, thereby limiting the Fed's ability to cut interest rates in the short term.
In addition, a strong USD is also putting pressure on the gold market. As the greenback appreciates, gold valued in USD becomes more expensive for investors using other currencies, thereby weakening demand for precious metals.
However, gold is still supported by safe-haven demand in the context of increasing geopolitical instability. The war in the Middle East and the risk of global energy supply disruptions are causing investors to maintain interest in risk-resistant assets such as gold.
Some experts believe that if geopolitical tensions continue to escalate or the global financial market experiences strong fluctuations, gold may soon regain its upward momentum. Conversely, if the USD continues to rise and US bond yields remain at a high level, gold prices may face further adjustment pressure in the short term.
In that context, investors next week will pay special attention to important US economic data, including inflation indicators and new signals from the Fed. This information will play a key role in orienting interest rate expectations and the trend of the gold market.
In general, although the short-term upward momentum is slowing down, many analysts still assess the long-term outlook for gold as relatively positive thanks to safe-haven demand and geopolitical instability showing no signs of cooling down.
