The gold market last week continued to be strongly affected by developments related to the Iran war. Information about the two-week ceasefire agreement between the US and Iran helped gold prices increase sharply in the midweek session, but market sentiment remained cautious due to concerns that this agreement would be difficult to maintain for long.
At the beginning of the week, spot gold prices were around 4,630 USD/ounce and quickly fell to nearly 4,600 USD before recovering above 4,700 USD. After the ceasefire information was announced, gold prices jumped to nearly 4,835 USD, but then turned around to adjust and fluctuated mainly in the 4,700-4,800 USD/ounce range for the rest of the week.
Kitco News' weekly gold survey shows that Wall Street analysts are having quite differentiated views on the gold price trend next week. Among the 14 experts surveyed, 50% predict gold prices will increase, 14% believe prices may decrease, while 36% predict the market will move sideways. In the group of individual investors, 63% predict gold prices will increase next week.
Mr. Adrian Day - Chairman of Adrian Day Asset Management - said that gold prices are gradually recovering after the previous correction and may have set a bottom after military tensions related to Iran. According to him, if the ceasefire is maintained, monetary factors will continue to support the market; conversely, if the conflict escalates again, the safe haven role of gold will quickly be strengthened.
Meanwhile, Mr. Colin Cieszynski - Chief Strategy Officer at SIA Wealth Management - said that gold prices are currently entering a accumulation phase after a strong increase that lasted for many months before. According to him, in the short term, gold may fluctuate in the 4,400-5,200 USD/ounce range as the war diễn biến continues to create unpredictable fluctuations.
Mr. Marc Chandler - Managing Director of Bannockburn Global Forex - said that if gold prices exceed the 4.915 USD mark, technical signals will be significantly improved and may pave the way for retesting the 5,000 USD mark in the near future.
From a technical perspective, Mr. Jim Wyckoff - Senior Analyst at Kitco - said that the next upward target of the buying side is to bring gold prices to close above the strong resistance zone of 5,000 USD, while the important support zone is currently around the 4,750 USD and 4,700 USD/ounce levels.
According to analysts, if the ceasefire is maintained and geopolitical tensions cool down, monetary factors may continue to support gold prices. Conversely, if the conflict escalates again, safe-haven demand will increase and create new momentum for precious metals.
In the coming week, the market will monitor some important US economic data such as the producer price index (PPI), production surveys and housing data to further assess the policy outlook of the US Federal Reserve.
Currently, gold prices are maintained around the 4,750 USD/ounce range, with the 5,000 USD mark continuing to be considered an important resistance level in the short term.
